STORM PREDICTION CENTER...NWS/NCEP...NORMAN OK
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PGWE46 KWNS.
VALID 122000Z - 131200Z
NO SVR TSTM AREAS FCST.
GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 N HVR WEY
40 SSW BYI 40 NE BIH 20 NW SMX.
GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM SJT 45 N ABI
35 NNW MWL 25 NNW ACT 25 N AUS 35 N SAT 35 SSW JCT SJT.
...CNTRL CA...
INTENSE DYNAMIC FORCING WITHIN EXIT REGION OF 100KT UPPER JET
SHOULD CONTINUE TO PROMOTE EMBEDDED LOW-TOPPED TSTMS WITHIN LARGER
RAIN AREA SPREADING INLAND AND INCREASING NEWD FROM THE BAY AREA TO
THE CNTRL VALLEY. DESPITE WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION...
COOLING MIDLEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MARGINAL
INSTABILITY WITH MUCAPE OF 150-400 J/KG POSSIBLE. LATEST ACARS AND
PROFILER DATA WERE SHOWING THE DEVELOPMENT OF VERY STRONG LOW LEVEL
SHEAR PROFILES WITH WINDS OF 50KT DESCENDING BELOW 700MB. GIVEN
MAGNITUDE OF LARGE SCALE FORCING...DEGREE OF LOW LEVEL SHEAR...
AND WEAK INSTABILITY...A LOW PROBABILITY TORNADO OR ISOLD DAMAGING
WIND THREAT MAY INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
...N-CNTRL TX...
18Z RUC SOUNDINGS AND MODEL OUTPUT...AS WELL AS 12Z ETAKF AND
GFS...CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLD TSTMS OVER TX
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. WITH TEMPERATURES NOW CLIMBING INTO THE LOWER
80S AND DEW POINTS GENERALLY IN THE MID 50S F IT APPEARS DEEPER
BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING...AND PERHAPS VERY WEAK LOW LEVEL WARM AIR
ADVECTION MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO OVERCOME THE CAP AND PERMIT A STORM
OR TWO TO DEVELOP ALONG WEAK INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH ALONG A JCT TO
MWL LINE. WITH MLCAPE GENERALLY UNDER 1000 J/KG...RELATIVELY WEAK
SHEAR PROFILES...AND LIMITED FORCING TO SUSTAIN CONVECTION...VERY
LOW SEVERE POTENTIAL IS ANTICIPATED FROM ANY ACTIVITY THAT CAN
DEVELOP.
...NORTHWEST/NRN ROCKIES...
BROADLY DIFLUENT MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW AND SHORT WAVE IMPULSES
EJECTING NEWD ACROSS THIS REGION WILL MAINTAIN MODEST TO STRONG
SYNOPTIC SCALE ASCENT WITHIN STEEP LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT. ALTHOUGH
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE GREAT...AREAS OF STRONGER
HEATING FROM THE COLUMBIA GORGE EWD ACROSS ID AND INTO WRN MT
SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO POCKETS OF STRONGER INSTABILITY AND ENHANCED
TSTM CHANCES THROUGH THE EVENING.
..CARBIN.. 04/12/03
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED FOR 0100Z
|