STORM PREDICTION CENTER...NWS/NCEP...NORMAN OK
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PGWE46 KWNS.
VALID 121300Z - 131200Z
NO SVR TSTM AREAS FCST.
GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 80 ENE HVR
20 ENE LWT 40 NE WEY 10 SSE IDA 40 N ENV 55 ESE U31 15 WSW BIH
25 SW PRB ...CONT... HQM 35 NNW SEA 50 E BLI.
GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 WNW CLL
40 SSE JCT 70 ENE P07 BGS 55 E LBB 15 ESE MWL 35 WNW CLL.
GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SE ISP 25 WSW GON
20 N GON 10 N PVD 25 NNE EWB.
...NWRN U.S....
UPPER LOW ALONG THE PACIFIC NW COAST WILL DRIFT SLOWLY EWD
TODAY...WHILE A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVE THROUGH THIS
FEATURE. LARGE SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVES WILL
ENHANCE CONVECTION WITHIN THE STEEP LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT N OF
CYCLONICALLY CURVED UPPER JET. LIMITED INSTABILITY SUGGESTS
LIGHTNING ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED.
...TX...
ELEVATED STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH WARM ADVECTION EXPECTED TO DIMINISH
LATER THIS MORNING AS THE LOW LEVEL JET SUBSIDES. UPPER RIDGE WILL
CONTINUE TO BUILD EWD INTO TX TODAY. MODEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH
SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S HAVE ADVECTED NWWD
INTO W CNTRL AND ERN PORTIONS OF W TX. HOWEVER...THE DRYLINE WILL
REMAIN POORLY DEFINED TODAY WITH WEAK FLOW AND LIMITED LARGE SCALE
SUPPORT FOR CONVERGENCE. A STORM OR TWO MAY DEVELOP IN MOISTURE
GRADIENT REGION OVER W TX OR W CNTRL TX WHERE DEEPER MIXING MAY BE
SUFFICIENT TO WEAKEN CAP. ANY ACTIVITY THAT DOES DEVELOP WILL BE
VERY ISOLATED AND QUICKLY DIMINISH WITH LOSS OF HEATING.
..DIAL.. 04/12/03
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED FOR 1630Z
|