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Apr- 7-2003 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
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0100 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
      
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   STORM PREDICTION CENTER...NWS/NCEP...NORMAN OK 
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PGWE46 KWNS.
   
   VALID 070100Z - 071200Z
   
   THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM SOUTH CENTRAL MS EWD INTO
   SWRN AND SOUTH CENTRAL AL.  THE HIGH RISK IS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE
   FROM 25 ESE MCB 20 NNE MCB 30 SSW JAN 20 SE JAN 25 ESE MEI 15 W MGM
   35 N CEW 15 NNW MOB 25 ESE MCB.
   
   THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE HIGH RISK.  THE
   MDT RISK IS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NNE HEZ 50 S GLH 40 NW
   BHM 20 SW GAD 20 N CEW 15 NNW MOB 35 SSE HEZ 20 NNE HEZ.
   
   THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
   25 SSW BPT 10 NW SHV 35 SSE HOT 35 WSW JBR 15 N DYR 25 N BNA
   30 W CSV 35 ESE CHA 40 ENE CSG 20 E DHN 30 SSE CEW.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SW GLS GGG
   60 WSW ARG 30 W TBN 40 NNE MHK 25 SE OLU 30 WSW MLI 35 ENE LAF
   20 ENE CMH 15 SSW HLG 35 SSE EKN 15 NE ORF ...CONT... 30 ENE SAV
   20 SW AYS 25 ENE AQQ.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NW BZN 20 ENE BIL
   25 WNW 4BQ 25 W BFF 15 SW AKO ASE 25 WSW PUC DPG 55 NNW ENV SUN
   40 W MQM 25 NW BZN.
   
   ...ISOLATED SIGNIFICANT TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WINDS REMAIN A
   THREAT WITH ONGOING STORMS FROM SRN MS INTO CENTRAL/SRN AL...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS... 
   EARLY EVENING SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE ARKLATEX
   WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING EWD INTO NRN MS AND THEN NEWD INTO THE
   TN VALLEY.  AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM EARLIER CONVECTION CONTINUES
   TO EXTEND EWD FROM NRN LA INTO CENTRAL MS/AL.  THE SURFACE LOW WILL
   TRACK NEWD INTO THE TN VALLEY OVERNIGHT...REACHING ERN KY BY 12Z
   MONDAY...AS AN UPPER SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE MID MS
   VALLEY.  ATTENDANT COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND SWWD FROM THE
   SURFACE LOW INTO CENTRAL/SRN AR TO ERN TX BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
   
   ...MS/AL...
   STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE E AND ENEWD THROUGH
   MS AND AL ALONG AN E-W ORIENTED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WHICH EXTENDS FROM
   NRN LA INTO CENTRAL MS/AL.  A SSWLY 50 KT LLJ...CURRENTLY OVER SRN
   LA INTO MS WILL LIFT NEWD INTO AL/MIDDLE TN OVERNIGHT.  THIS LLJ
   COMBINED WITH 50-65 KT SWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT
   IN STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED STORMS WITH SUPERCELLS...
   WITHIN A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT. 
   LOCALLY ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL SHEAR PROFILES IN THE VICINITY OF THE E-
   W BOUNDARY FROM NRN LA INTO CENTRAL/SRN MS AND CENTRAL/SRN AL WILL
   CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A SIGNIFICANT TORNADO THREAT WELL INTO THE
   NIGHT.
   
   ...TN VALLEY...
   SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL BE LESS OF A CONCERN NEWD INTO THE TN VALLEY.
   THE AIR MASS CURRENTLY OVER NRN MS/NRN AL INTO TN/KY IS GENERALLY
   STABLE WITHIN AN AREA OF WIDESPREAD  PRECIPITATION.  HOWEVER...
   MODELS SUGGEST SOME POTENTIAL FOR ELEVATED STORMS OVER WRN/MIDDLE
   TN AND NRN MS/NRN AL...WITH LARGE HAIL BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT
   WITH THESE STORMS.   
    
   ..PETERS.. 04/06/03
   
   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED FOR 0600Z
        
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