STORM PREDICTION CENTER...NWS/NCEP...NORMAN OK
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PGWE46 KWNS.
VALID 311300Z - 011200Z
NO SVR TSTM AREAS FCST.
NO TSTM AREAS FCST.
...SYNOPSIS...
OVERALL MID-LEVEL FLOW OVER THE CONUS IS FORECAST TO DEAMPLIFY
SOMEWHAT THIS PERIOD. THE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO TREND TOWARD A
BROAD LOW-AMPLITUDE RIDGE OVER MOST OF THE CONUS AS DOWNSTREAM
TROUGH OVER THE ERN CONUS DEPARTS AND UPSTREAM TROUGH MOVES SEWD
TOWARD THE PACIFIC NW.
...NERN CA NEWD INTO THE NRN ROCKIES...
ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM NERN CA NEWD INTO
MT...AND PERHAPS ESEWD INTO THE NRN PLAINS LATER IN THE PERIOD.
SUFFICIENT MID-LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLUME EVIDENT ATTM IN WV IMAGERY
AHEAD OF APPROACHING WRN TROUGH COMBINED WITH MODERATELY-STEEP
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY CONTRIBUTE TO MINIMAL INSTABILITY.
GREATEST THUNDER THREAT WILL LIKELY BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN / CONFINED
TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN ACROSS THIS REGION GIVEN THE ANTICIPATED LACK
OF PRONOUNCED LARGE-SCALE UVV. IT APPEARS ATTM THAT LIGHTNING
STRIKES WILL BE ISOLATED -- COVERING LESS THAN 10 PERCENT OF THIS
AREA -- THUS PRECLUDING THUNDER OUTLOOK.
..GOSS.. 03/31/03
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED FOR 1630Z
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