STORM PREDICTION CENTER...NWS/NCEP...NORMAN OK
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PGWE46 KWNS.
VALID 281300Z - 291200Z
THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM ERI
40 N JKL 40 WNW CSV UOX LIT 60 NNW POF 25 SE OSC.
GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 E MSS UCA BGM IPT
AOO 25 SSE LBE EKN SSU 30 S BLF AHN 20 SSE ATL CSG 15 S AUO
30 ENE MGM 30 N MGM 35 E 0A8 LUL ESF TXK FYV UMN UIN RFD
40 SSE ANJ.
GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 ESE SAV 50 N SAV
SOP 60 S RIC 30 SSW WAL.
--- SYNOPSIS ---
IN MID/UPPER LEVELS...LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL REMAIN DOMINATED BY
HIGH-AMPLITUDE AND POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH FROM HUDSON BAY REGION
SWWD TO NRN MEX. AS SERIES OF LOW-AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVES MOVE
THROUGH ASSOCIATED CYCLONIC JET BELT...MEAN TROUGH WILL DRIFT EWD
...REACHING FROM NERN ONT ACROSS LS AND SRN PLAINS TO COAHUILA BY
END OF PERIOD.
AT SURFACE...STRONG CYCLONE NOW ANALYZED OVER SERN WI IS FORECAST
TO EJECT NEWD ACROSS LM/LOWER MI/LH...TO WRN QUE BY 29/12Z.
TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP EWD ACROSS MS VALLEY AND NWRN
GULF...REACHING WRN PA...SRN APPALACHIANS AND BAY OF CAMPECHE BY
SATURDAY MORNING.
--- MI/OH TO LOWER MS VALLEY ---
WITHIN BROAD BAND OF NEAR-FRONTAL PRECIP FROM AR TO MI...WIDELY
SCATTERED TSTMS SHOULD DEVELOP EPISODICALLY AND IN LINES OR
CLUSTERS. GREATEST CONVECTIVE COVERAGE SHOULD BE DIURNAL.
AVAILABLE RAOBS AND ETA-KF/RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE
COMBINATION OF MARGINAL BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE...SMALL MIDLEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND CINH WILL SIGNIFICANTLY LIMIT POTENTIAL FOR LONG-
LIVED TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF AREA. HOWEVER...POCKETS OF SBCAPE OR
VERY NEARLY SBCAPE IN 500-1000 J/KG RANGE MAY FORM WITH DIURNAL
HEATING ACROSS CATEGORICAL SLGT RISK AREA. DEEPEST CONVECTION WILL
HAVE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL.
GIVEN STRENGTH OF ENVIRONMENTAL FLOW JUST OFF SURFACE -- E.G. 40-50
KT AT 850 MB FROM WRN TN NNEWD -- STRONGEST DOWNDRAFTS SHOULD BE
ABLE TO TRANSPORT CONSIDERABLE MOMENTUM TO SURFACE. DESPITE NEARLY
UNIDIRECTIONAL VERTICAL WIND PROFILES ACROSS REGION...STRONG DEEP-
LAYER SPEED SHEAR STILL IS EXPECTED AND A FEW ISOLATED SUPERCELLS
MAY DEVELOP WITHIN CONVECTIVE BAND.
..EDWARDS/NADEN.. 03/28/03
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED FOR 1630Z
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