STORM PREDICTION CENTER...NWS/NCEP...NORMAN OK 
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PGWE46 KWNS.
   
   VALID 281200Z - 291200Z
   
   THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
   40 WSW ERI 10 NNE CAK LOZ HSV JAN GWO JBR MTO AZO MBS 60 SE OSC.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSE VRB
   25 NNW AGR 40 SSE GNV 20 NNE JAX ...CONT... 25 E CHS 40 S FAY
   45 W ECG 30 SSW WAL.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WNW SYR 25 SW EKN
   40 NNW HKY 45 NE MCN 20 ENE 0A8 35 SSE JAN 30 NNW ESF TXK
   30 ESE FSM 20 SSW TBN 20 ENE UIN 15 NNE RFD 40 SE ANJ.
   
   FAIRLY HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER TROUGH HAS EVOLVED ACROSS THE CENTRAL
   U.S...WITH COLD CYCLONIC FLOW CURVING FROM THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST
   INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.  MEAN TROUGH AXIS IS PROGGED TO
   GRADUALLY DEVELOP EASTWARD TODAY...AS SHARP UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS FROM
   THE EASTERN PACIFIC INTO THE PACIFIC COAST STATES.  SPLIT FLOW
   REGIME WILL PERSIST FROM THE ATLANTIC COAST INTO THE WESTERN
   ATLANTIC...WITH SLIGHT AMPLIFICATION TO THE NORTHERN BRANCH RIDGE
   OFF THE MIDDLE/NORTH ATLANTIC COAST...WHILE SOUTHERN BRANCH TROUGH
   CONTINUES TO SLOWLY DEAMPLIFY AS IT MIGRATES WELL EAST OF THE
   FLORIDA PENINSULA.
   
   ...LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO GREAT LAKES...
   PRIMARY SHORT WAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN LARGER-SCALE CENTRAL U.S. TROUGH
   WILL CONTINUE TO EASTWARD OUT OF THE SOUTHER ROCKIES INTO THE
   CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH DAYBREAK.  SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY LIFT
   OUT OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS DURING THE DAY...WITH STRONGER MID-
   LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS DEVELOPING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE MIDDLE
   MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY LATE AFTERNOON...ALONG/NORTH OF INTENSIFYING
   SOUTHWESTERLY MID/UPPER JET STREAK.  MODELS SUGGEST 90-100 KT 500
   MB JET ALONG AN AXIS FROM EAST CENTRAL MISSOURI INTO NORTHEAST
   ILLINOIS BY 29/00Z. 
   
   WHILE STRONGER MID/UPPER FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION WILL
   GENERALLY REMAIN TO COOL SIDE OF MERIDIONAL SURFACE COLD FRONT...
   SIGNIFICANT DEEPENING OF SURFACE CYCLONE IS PROGGED FROM NORTHEAST
   ILLINOIS INTO LOWER MICHIGAN DURING THE AFTERNOON.  THIS WILL BE
   ACCOMPANIED BY STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC FORCING SOUTH
   OF LOW INTO NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO PROVIDE
   FOCUS FOR INTENSE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT BY THE LATE AFTERNOON
   HOURS.  
   
   WHILE STRONG RETURN FLOW OF MOISTURE OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL
   NOT OCCUR...LIMITING EXTENT OF CONVECTIVE THREAT...MID/UPPER 50S
   SURFACE DEW POINTS ARE PRESENT THROUGH MUCH OF THE LOWER
   MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AND WILL ADVECT NORTHWARD IN NARROW TONGUE
   ALONG/WEST OF 50 KT LOW-LEVEL JET AXIS.  MODELS SUGGEST THIS WILL
   BE SUFFICIENT FOR CAPE AROUND 1000 J/KG WITH DAYTIME HEATING
   ...SUPPORTING THREAT FOR VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS AS MID-LEVEL CAP BREAKS.
   
   THIS MAY BE AS EARLY AS 21Z FROM PARTS OF SOUTHERN ILLINOIS INTO
   WESTERN INDIANA...WHERE SQUALL LINE APPEARS LIKELY TO RAPIDLY
   EVOLVE...BEFORE LIFTING NORTH/NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
   INDIANAPOLIS/FORT WAYNE AND DETROIT AREAS BY EARLY EVENING. 
   EMBEDDED WITH STRONG MEAN ENVIRONMENTAL FLOW REGIME...DAMAGING
   WINDS WILL LIKELY ACCOMPANY LINE...WITH SHEAR PROFILES SUFFICIENT
   FOR EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS AND ENHANCED THREAT OF HAIL/ISOLATED
   TORNADOES.
   
   DESPITE STRONGER CAPPING/WEAKER FORCING...BROKEN TO SCATTERED
   CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED SOUTHWARD ALONG/AHEAD OF FRONT
   ACROSS WESTERN KENTUCKY/WESTERN TENNESSEE INTO NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI
   NEAR/SHORTLY AFTER PEAK HEATING.  ISOLATED SUPERCELLS ARE POSSIBLE
   ...UNTIL ONSET OF RADIATIONAL SURFACE COOLING STABILIZES AIR MASS. 
   
   NOCTURNAL COOLING WILL BE A LIMITING FACTOR FARTHER NORTH ACROSS
   THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES/UPPER OHIO VALLEY...BUT SOME STRONGER
   SURFACE WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH STRONGLY
   FORCED CONVECTIVE LINE.
   
   ..KERR/JEWELL.. 03/28/03
   
   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED FOR 1300Z