STORM PREDICTION CENTER...NWS/NCEP...NORMAN OK
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PGWE46 KWNS.
VALID 251200Z - 261200Z
THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
35 WSW MKO 25 N HRO 50 NNE PAH 35 S OWB 25 ENE HEZ 20 WSW ESF
40 WNW LFK 20 SSE DAL 15 ESE DUA 35 WSW MKO.
GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 S CRP 25 ESE COT
35 W HDO 45 NE JCT 20 SSW MWL 35 WSW ADM 35 WNW OKC END 40 NNW BVO
35 WSW STL 25 SSE LAF 30 NNW MFD 10 N BUF 15 NNE RUT 20 SSE CON
25 SE CXY BKW 45 ENE CHA MOB 10 SE GPT.
...SYNOPSIS...
POSITIVELY-TILTED MID-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE EWD ACROSS
THE CENTRAL THIRD OF THE COUNTRY THIS PERIOD...WHILE SEVERAL
SMALLER-SCALE FEATURES MOVE CYCLONICALLY THROUGH THE LARGER-SCALE
FLOW. SURFACE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH MAIN UPPER TROUGH --
INITIALLY EXTENDING FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WSWWD INTO N TX --
MOVES EWD TO THE APPALACHIANS BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
...ARKLATEX REGION NEWD INTO THE MID MS / LOWER OH VALLEYS...
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD
INVOF SURFACE BOUNDARY FROM PARTS OF OK NEWD INTO IL / IN. STORMS
SHOULD CONTINUE / REDEVELOP INVOF THIS BOUNDARY THROUGH THE DAY --
GRADUALLY SHIFTING SEWD ACROSS THE OH AND MID MS VALLEYS. ALTHOUGH
AIRMASS ACROSS THIS PART OF THE REGION WILL REMAIN ONLY MARGINALLY
UNSTABLE...MODERATE MID-LEVEL FLOW MAY SUPPORT SOME STORM
ORGANIZATION WITH HAIL AND PERHAPS LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE.
FURTHER SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE ARKLATEX REGION...AIRMASS WILL LIKELY
REMAIN CAPPED SOUTH OF THE FRONT DESPITE ETA FORECASTS -- WHOSE
SHALLOW CONVECTIVE SCHEME RESULTS IN AN UNCAPPED / UNSTABLE
AIRMASS. LIFT ALONG / JUST NORTH OF BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY WEAKEN
CAP SUFFICIENTLY FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP FROM NERN TX ACROSS
THE ARKLATEX REGION DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON / EVENING. STEEP
LAPSE RATES ACROSS THIS REGION WILL LIKELY SUPPORT A SEVERE HAIL
THREAT...BUT IT APPEARS THAT STRENGTH OF DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD
REMAINS WILL BE RELATIVELY WEAK -- SUPPORTING PRIMARILY MULTICELL
STORMS AND THUS LIMITING THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS.
..GOSS.. 03/25/03
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED FOR 1300Z
|