STORM PREDICTION CENTER...NWS/NCEP...NORMAN OK 
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PGWE46 KWNS.
   
   VALID 200100Z - 201200Z
   
   THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS CENTRAL/SRN GA AND
   SRN SC...TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM SSI AYS ABY CSG LGC ATL AHN 
   25 NE AGS 25 SE CHS.
   
   THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ELSEWHERE TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE
   FROM 25 SSW CEW MGM CHA LEX 30 SE DAY CMH ZZV PKB 5I3 45 SW BLF GSO
   35 S EWN ...CONT... VRB 25 WSW MLB ORL 40 W JAX 30 SSW VLD
   40 SSE TLH.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM BUF 45 WNW IPT HGR
   RIC ECG 35 NNE HSE ...CONT... 30 S FMY AGR 20 NW ORL GNV 30 S CTY
   ...CONT... 20 WSW PNS BHM 35 SSE BWG 35 WNW BWG HOP UOX MLU
   SEP 50 SSW SPS FSI OKC BVO MKC LWD LSE 35 ESE AUW TVC OSC.
   
   --- SYNOPSIS ---
   HIGH-AMPLITUDE MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER
   CONUS ON LARGE SCALE...DOMINATED BY RIDGE FROM WRN CANADA TO AZ AND
   WELL-DEFINED DEEP-LAYER CYCLONE CENTERED OVER WRN OZARKS REGION
   SHOULD REMAIN QUASISTATIONARY THROUGH REMAINDER PERIOD AS SEVERAL
   SHORTWAVES PIVOT AROUND ITS VAST SRN SEMICIRCLE...ACROSS NRN
   MEX...ARKLATEX AND TN VALLEY REGIONS.  
   
   AT SURFACE...COMPLEX ARRAY OF BOUNDARIES INCLUDES WARM FRONT
   EXTENDING NEWD FROM OZARKS LOW ACROSS NERN MO...NRN IL...N-CENTRAL
   INDIANA AND CENTRAL OH...BECOMING QUASISTATIONARY WRN BOUNDARY OF
   APPALACHIANS COLD-AIR DAMMING REGIMES IT CURVES SWWD ACROSS SRN
   WV/ERN KY/ERN TN.  WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE LIFTING NWD
   TOWARD GREAT LAKES THROUGH REMAINDER PERIOD.  DRYLINE -- NOW
   ANALYZED FROM SRN INDIANA SWD ACROSS MIDDLE TN/ERN AL TO NEAR MOUTH
   OF MS RIVER -- SHOULD DRIFT EWD N OF TN/AL BORDER AND REMAIN NEARLY
   STATIONARY ELSEWHERE.  SEVERAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ARE ANALYZED FROM
   MID OH VALLEY SWD TO ERN TN...BETWEEN FRONT AND DRYLINE. 
   MEANWHILE...ANOTHER WARM FRONT OVER CENTRAL GA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
   NWD INTO NRN GA AND PORTIONS SRN/WRN SC TONIGHT.  WEAKENING
   MESOSCALE FRONTAL ZONE EXTENDS FROM FL E COAST SEA BREEZE NWWD
   ACROSS SWRN GA/SERN AL AND WILL LOSE DEFINITION THROUGH REST OF
   PERIOD.
   
   --- SERN CONUS ---
   GREATEST SEVERE PROBABILITIES THROUGH REMAINDER PERIOD ARE EXPECTED
   OVER PORTIONS GA/SC...WHERE THREAT OF SUPERCELLS WITH TORNADOES
   WILL CONTINUE E OF DRYLINE AND ALONG AND S OF WARM FRONT.  REF WWS
   60-61 AND ASSOCIATED SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS FOR NEAR-TERM
   FORECAST INFORMATION.  GREATEST LOW LEVEL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO
   REMAIN INVOF WARM FRONT...WHERE BACKED BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL
   MAXIMIZE LOW LEVEL SRH/SR INFLOW AND VORTICITY.  MODIFIED TLH/JAX
   RAOBS AND RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE FAVORABLE INSTABILITY/
   SHEAR WILL REMAIN ACROSS REGION WITH 1000-2000 J/KG MUCAPE...55-75
   KT 0-6 KM AGL VECTOR SHEAR AND 0-3 KM SRH 250-400 J/KG OVER
   CATEGORICAL MDT RISK AREA.
   
   WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED TSTMS ARE ANTICIPATED N OF WARM FRONT
   -- ATOP RESIDUAL COLD AIR DAMMING LAYER.  REF SPC WW 59 AND
   ASSOCIATED MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS FOR NOWCAST GUIDANCE.  WHILE
   BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD REMAIN TOO STABLE N OF FRONT TO ALLOW MOST
   INTENSE DOWNDRAFTS TO PENETRATE TO SURFACE...ISOLATED GUSTS NEAR
   SEVERE LEVELS ARE POSSIBLE...ALONG WITH LARGE HAIL.  
   
   TSTMS OVER ERN FL PENINSULA ARE EXPECTED TO LESSEN IN INTENSITY AND
   COVERAGE NEXT FEW HOURS AS INSOLATION-DRIVEN SEA BREEZE SOLENOIDS
   DISSIPATE.  
   
   --- OH/KY ---
   NARROW ZONE OF FAVORABLE JUXTAPOSITION OF LOW-MIDLEVEL INSTABILITY
   --LAPSE RATES 6.5-8 DEG C/KM -- AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT
   OCCASIONAL SEVERE TSTMS NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.  ELEVATED MIXED-LAYER
   AIR EVIDENT BEHIND DRYLINE AT BNA RAOB...WHICH WILL ADVECT OVER
   THIS REGION AND FURTHER ENHANCE MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES.  MAIN THREATS
   WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND POTENTIALLY DAMAGING GUSTS.
   
   --- ARKLATEX TO MID MS VALLEY ---
   SCATTERED TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO GENERALLY DECREASE IN COVERAGE/
   INTENSITY THROUGH REMAINDER PERIOD INVOF NE-SW ORIENTED LOW LEVEL
   BAROCLINIC ZONE.  FRONTAL ZONE AND DIABATIC HEATING HAVE PROVIDED
   MOST FORCING FOR THIS CONVECTION WITH SUPPORT FROM LARGE-SCALE
   DESTABILIZATION ASSOCIATED WITH COLD CORE OF MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW. 
   CAPE WILL DECREASE THROUGH REMAINDER EVENING AND TONIGHT WITH
   STABILIZATION OF BOUNDARY LAYER...ELEVATED MUCAPE FALLING TO BELOW
   500 J/KG MOST AREAS AFTER ABOUT 3Z.  A FEW CELLS MAY PRODUCE HAIL
   NEAR SEVERE LEVELS IN THE MEANTIME.
     
   ..EDWARDS.. 03/20/03
   
   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED FOR 0600Z