STORM PREDICTION CENTER...NWS/NCEP...NORMAN OK 
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PGWE46 KWNS.
   
   VALID 121200Z - 131200Z
   
   THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
   15 SE LTS 45 WNW END 25 SW HUT 10 W TOP 45 NNW COU 20 W STL
   45 N POF 20 ESE UNO 30 ESE HRO 10 SSE FSM 20 W DUA SPS 15 SE LTS.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSW PSX 40 NW HOU
   40 ESE LFK 35 WNW JAN 20 NE LGC 20 SW AGS 25 SW CHS.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 ENE HOT 35 E PRX
   45 E DAL 35 N ACT 15 S ABI 25 SW LTS 30 E GAG 30 NNW P28
   25 NNW SLN 25 ENE FNB 35 S CGX 40 WNW CLE 20 NNW YNG 35 S HLG
   25 ENE HTS 25 SSE PAH 15 ENE HOT.
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND 00Z UPPER AIR ANALYSES REVEAL A WEAK MID-
   UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING NRN ID.  THIS TROUGH
   SHOULD MOVE ESEWD TO NEB/WRN IA/NRN KS BY LATE AFTERNOON...AND
   CONTINUE TO THE MID MS/LOWER OH VALLEYS BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. 
   AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT IS MOVING SLOWLY SWD ACROSS ERN
   NEB/NW IA...AND THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD REACH NE KS/EXTREME NRN MO BY
   LATE AFTERNOON.  A WEAK LEE CYCLONE NOW IN EXTREME NE NM WILL
   DEVELOP ESEWD TOWARD WRN OK DURING THE DAY AND GRADUALLY
   WEAKEN...WHILE ANOTHER WEAK LOW DEVELOPS FARTHER NE ALONG THE
   BAROCLINIC ZONE AND MOVES ACROSS IL/INDIANA OVERNIGHT.  THE SURFACE
   FRONT AND/OR THE DRYLINE TO THE NE OF THE SURFACE LOW SHOULD BE THE
   PRIMARY FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO
   THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
   
   ...ERN KS/MO/NW AR/OK AREA...
   DEW POINTS NEAR 60 F HAVE SPREAD NWD TO THE RED RIVER AS OF
   03Z...AND THE 00Z ETA/ETA-KF FORECASTS OF 60 DEW POINTS INTO SE
   KS/SW MO BY LATE AFTERNOON APPEAR REASONABLE.  WITH AFTERNOON
   TEMPERATURES IN THE RANGE OF 75-80 F WITHIN WARM SECTOR...EXPECT
   MLCAPE VALUES NEAR 2500 J/KG FROM N TX ACROSS CENTRAL/ERN OK TO SE
   KS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON.  CONVECTIVE INITIATION APPEARS MOST
   LIKELY INVOF E/SE KS/W CENTRAL MO FROM 21-00Z TO THE NE OF THE
   SURFACE LOW AND ALONG THE SURFACE COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL ALSO BE
   IN PROXIMITY TO A WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ESEWD ACROSS NRN KS.
   EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO THEN SPREAD EWD ACROSS MO...AND POSSIBLY
   DEVELOP SWWD ALONG THE WEAK COLD FRONT IN KS AND THE DRYLINE IN OK.
   FARTHER S IN TX...CONVECTIVE INITIATION IS MUCH LESS CERTAIN DUE TO
   AT BEST WEAK FORCING FOR ASCENT ON THE DRYLINE...AND THE LIKELIHOOD
   OF WEAK CAP PERSISTING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/EVENING.
   
   30-40 KT MID LEVEL WLY FLOW AND 15-25 KT LOW-LEVEL S/SSWLY FLOW
   WILL RESULT IN SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE
   STORMS...INCLUDING SUPERCELLS.  0-6 KM SHEAR VECTOR ORIENTATION AND
   WEAK ASCENT/SOME CONVECTIVE INHIBITION MAY SUPPORT DISCRETE
   SUPERCELLS ALONG THE DRYLINE...THOUGH STORM COVERAGE ALONG THE
   DRYLINE SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED.  OTHERWISE...EXPECT STORMS TO
   GRADUALLY MERGE INTO MORE OF A BAND ALONG THE FRONT ACROSS SE KS/NE
   OK/MO/NW AR BY TONIGHT.  GIVEN THE FORECAST COMBINATIONS OF
   INSTABILITY...VERTICAL SHEAR...AND SEASONABLY COOL MID LEVEL
   TEMPERATURES...EXPECT LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS TO BE THE MAIN
   SEVERE THREATS.  LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE/SHEAR ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE
   PARTICULARLY FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLULAR TORNADOES...THOUGH AN
   ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO MAY OCCUR. 
   
   ...GULF COAST AREA...
   RICH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RESIDES FROM CENTRAL FL ACROSS THE NRN GULF
   TO S TX.  AS THIS MOISTURE SPREADS INLAND ACROSS THE GULF COAST
   LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT...A FEW CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
   POSSIBLE IN THE WEAK WAA REGIME.  RELATIVELY WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR
   AND MODEST MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES SUGGEST THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD
   BE MINIMAL ACROSS THIS AREA.
    
   ..THOMPSON.. 03/12/03
   
   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED FOR 1300Z