STORM PREDICTION CENTER...NWS/NCEP...NORMAN OK
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PGWE46 KWNS.
VALID 060100Z - 061200Z
THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
30 N SAV 25 NNE PNS 25 SSW HUM 30 NW LFT 45 NNE HEZ 35 S HSV
15 SW GSP 50 SSE CLT 45 N CHS 30 N SAV.
GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SW GLS 30 NNE HOU
10 SSE LFK 15 WNW ELD 10 W MEM 65 E BWG 15 NNE ROA 15 S WAL
...CONT... 30 SE JAX 15 SSW CTY.
...SERN U.S....
A WARM FRONT EXTENDS FROM SRN GA WWD THROUGH SRN AL...SRN MS AND
FARTHER W INTO SWRN LA WHERE IT INTERSECTS A COLD FRONT. THE WARM
FRONT WILL LIFT SLOWLY NWD TONIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT PROGRESSES
EWD. MEANWHILE A BROAD POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
CNTRL U.S. WILL CONTINUE EWD. A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WILL PERSIST
E OF THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS AND LIFT NEWD INTO THE TN VALLEY AND WRN
CAROLINAS OVERNIGHT.
THE 00Z OBSERVED SOUNDINGS ALONG THE COAST SHOW MODERATE
INSTABILITY S OF THIS BOUNDARY...BUT WITH A MID LEVEL CAPPING
INVERSION. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE DEVELOPING WITHIN ZONE
OF STRONG ASCENT AND THETA-E ADVECTION N OF THE WARM FRONT.
ACTIVITY HAS DEVELOPED A COLD POOL AND APPEARS SLIGHTLY ELEVATED.
HOWEVER...THE STORMS DEVELOPING ON THE SRN FLANKS OF THE COLD POOL
NEAR THE WARM FRONT MAY BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO SURFACE BASED TO PRODUCE
DAMAGING WIND AND POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL SPREAD NEWD THROUGH NRN/CNTRL GA AND TOWARD THE WRN
CAROLINAS TONIGHT AS THE ZONE OF STRONG ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
LOW LEVEL JET SHIFTS NEWD. WIND/SHEAR PROFILES WILL REMAIN
FAVORABLE OVERNIGHT FOR ORGANIZED STORMS INCLUDING BOWING SEGMENTS
AND OCCASIONAL SUPERCELLS AS THIS ACTIVITY DEVELOPS NEWD.
HOWEVER...LIMITING FACTOR WILL CONTINUE TO BE MARGINAL INSTABILITY.
FARTHER W OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY...THREAT IS MORE CONDITIONAL.
THERE IS A CHANCE THAT STORMS COULD DEVELOP ALONG THE SURFACE COLD
FRONT AS IT CONTINUES EWD. HOWEVER...PRESENCE OF CAP AND TENDENCY
FOR THE LOW LEVEL JET TO LIFT AWAY FROM THIS AREA LOWERS CONFIDENCE
THAT SURFACE BASED STORMS CAN INITIATE. HOWEVER...IF STORMS DO
DEVELOP ALONG THE SURFACE FRONT...THREAT FOR MAINLY HAIL AND
ISOLATED WIND GUSTS WILL EXIST.
..DIAL.. 03/06/03
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED FOR 0600Z
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