STORM PREDICTION CENTER...NWS/NCEP...NORMAN OK 
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PGWE46 KWNS.
   
   VALID 271200Z - 281200Z
   
   NO SVR TSTM AREAS FCST.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 S MOB 40 NW MOB
   15 ENE JAN CBM HSV 30 S CSV 45 SSE TYS SPA 20 ESE CLT RWI
   10 ENE ORF ...CONT... 25 N PBI 15 W FMY.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 SE SOW PHX EED
   50 NNE DAG 60 SE BIH 10 NE TPH 45 SSW ELY U24 PUC EGE COS
   10 ESE LHX EHA 55 NNE AMA AMA TCC ONM 55 SE SOW.
   
   STRONG MID/UPPER FLOW REGIME WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER
   OF THE U.S. AND THE MEXICAN PLATEAU/GULF OF MEXICO...IN ASSOCIATION
   WITH BOTH THE SOUTHERN BRANCH OF WESTERLIES AND THE SUBTROPICAL
   JET.  UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARD TO INTERACTION/COUPLING OF SHORT
   WAVES/JETS STREAKS EMBEDDED WITHIN THESE TWO BRANCHES OF FLOW IS
   PROVIDING SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARD TO CURRENT OUTLOOK...BUT
   LATEST MODEL PROGS ALL SUGGEST CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL IS RATHER LOW. 
   THIS IS PRIMARILY DUE TO RECENT ARCTIC SURGE EAST OF THE ROCKIES...
   WHICH IS ONLY NOW BEGINNING TO SLOWLY MODIFY.
   
   ...SOUTHEASTERN U.S...
   LOW AMPLITUDE SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO CONTINUE EAST
   NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY DURING THIS
   FORECAST PERIOD...REACHING THE SOUTHERN MID ATLANTIC COAST BY EARLY
   FRIDAY MORNING.  MODELS INDICATE COUPLED JET STREAKS IN BASE OF
   THIS TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES...
   ACCOMPANIED BY 40 TO 50 KT LOW-LEVEL JET...WITH STRONGEST FLOW
   SHIFTING ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
   HOURS.  
   
   WEAK SURFACE LOW WILL MIGRATE FROM THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO INTO
   SOUTHERN GEORGIA DURING THE DAY...BUT PRIMARY SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS
   IS FORECAST TO TAKE PLACE OFF THE SOUTH ATLANTIC COAST.  MODELS
   SUGGEST THIS WILL BEGIN TO OCCUR RATHER EARLY IN THE DAY
   TODAY...AND AS BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW VEERS IN RESPONSE TO DEVELOPING
   SYSTEM...VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WILL BECOME MOSTLY UNIDIRECTIONAL. 
   THIS WILL TEND TO LIMIT LOW-LEVEL SHEAR...AS WELL AS MINIMIZE
   CONVERGENCE ALONG/AHEAD OF WEAK SURFACE FRONT.  THUS...DESPITE
   LIKELY DEVELOPMENT OF WEAK TO MODERATE SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY IN
   MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA...AND PRESENCE OF 40
   TO 50 KT MEAN FLOW REGIME...POTENTIAL FOR VIGOROUS THUNDERSTORM
   ACTIVITY APPEARS LOW.
   
   ...SOUTHWESTERN STATES...
   ANOTHER JET STREAK CONTINUES TO DIG TOWARD THE LOWER COLORADO
   VALLEY.  THIS FEATURE IS PROGGED TO GRADUALLY TURN EASTWARD ACROSS
   SOUTHERN ARIZONA BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS.  AGEOSTROPHIC FORCING FOR
   UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION/DESTABILIZATION IN EXIT REGION OF CYCLONIC
   JET APPEAR LIKELY TO ENHANCE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL...PARTICULARLY
   NEAR/SHORTLY AFTER PEAK HEATING ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN/CENTRAL
   ARIZONA.  ALTHOUGH THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES SUGGEST CAPE WILL BE
   FAIRLY WEAK AND CLOUD TOPS LOW...FAVORABLY SHEARED KINEMATIC
   ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW FREEZING/WET BULB ZERO LEVELS WILL SUPPORT A
   RISK OF HAIL APPROACHING OR BRIEFLY EXCEEDING SEVERE LIMITS.
    
   ..KERR.. 02/27/03
   
   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED FOR 1300Z