STORM PREDICTION CENTER...NWS/NCEP...NORMAN OK
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PGWE46 KWNS.
VALID 251200Z - 261200Z
NO SVR TSTM AREAS FCST.
GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SW SBA BFL ELY
DPG VEL CAG 4FC COS PUB TAD CVS 40 S LBB BGS 25 SE P07.
GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM GLS 40 NNE VCT AUS
40 W ACT DAL PRX HOT LIT MSL HSV GAD 25 SE BHM 0A8 MCB GLS.
--- SYNOPSIS ---
SPLIT FLOW PATTERN IN MIDDLE-UPPER LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL
OVER CONUS...FEATURING PRONOUNCED SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER SWRN
STATES. THIS TROUGH -- CONTAINING SEVERAL MIDLEVEL VORTICITY LOBES
-- WILL BLEND CYCLONE NOW OFFSHORE SRN CA WITH NRN STREAM
PERTURBATION CURRENTLY OVER SRN ID/NERN NV. DOWNSTREAM...SHORTWAVE
TROUGH NOW MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL/SRN TX WILL DEAMPLIFY FURTHER...
ACCELERATE ENEWD AND MOVE OFFSHORE NC AMIDST CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT.
AT SURFACE...STRONGLY STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL REMAIN OVER MOST
OF CENTRAL/ERN CONUS...IN ASSOCIATION WITH NEWD-MOVING POLAR
ANTICYCLONE AND EXTENSIVE AREA OF DEEP SNOW COVER.
--- CENTRAL/ERN TX TO NRN AL/MS ---
MOIST ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT ATOP DENSE POLAR AIR MASS IS
FORECAST TO WEAKEN THROUGH PERIOD -- AS MIDDLE-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
MOVES PAST AREA AND DEAMPLIFIES. HOWEVER...PARTICULARLY FIRST 6-9
HOURS OF PERIOD...SUFFICIENT LOW-MIDLEVEL ASCENT AND
DESTABILIZATION SHOULD LINGER TO SUPPORT CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL
WITHIN ENEWD-MOVING PLUME OF PRECIP. ELEVATED MUCAPE IN 100-300
J/KG IS POSSIBLE...AND MUCH OF THIS CONVECTION WILL OCCUR ATOP
SUBFREEZING SURFACE TEMPS.
--- SRN CA...GREAT BASIN TO FAR W TX ---
BROAD PLUME OF COLD MIDLEVEL AIR IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD OVER OUTLOOK
AREA W OF PECOS RIVER IN CONCURRENCE WITH DIABATIC BOUNDARY LAYER
HEATING...STEEPENING LAPSE RATES. MARGINAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO SBCAPE/MLCAPE 100-300 J/KG. REGIME SHOULD SHIFT EWD
AS FAR AS W TX AFTER DARK...WITHOUT INSOLATION BUT WITH WEAK LOW
LEVEL WAA/MOIST ADVECTION ALONG WRN FRINGE OF ELEVATED TRAJECTORIES
ORIGINATING OVER GULF. TSTM OCCURRENCE ACROSS THIS ENTIRE REGION
WILL BE EPISODIC/SPORADIC...WITH CUMULATIVE COVERAGE ISOLATED TO
WIDELY SCATTERED.
..EDWARDS.. 02/25/03
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED FOR 1300Z
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