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Feb-25-2003 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
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1200 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
      
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   STORM PREDICTION CENTER...NWS/NCEP...NORMAN OK 
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PGWE46 KWNS.
   
   VALID 251200Z - 261200Z
   
   NO SVR TSTM AREAS FCST.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SW SBA BFL ELY
   DPG VEL CAG 4FC COS PUB TAD CVS 40 S LBB BGS 25 SE P07.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM GLS 40 NNE VCT AUS
   40 W ACT DAL PRX HOT LIT MSL HSV GAD 25 SE BHM 0A8 MCB GLS.
   
   --- SYNOPSIS ---
   SPLIT FLOW PATTERN IN MIDDLE-UPPER LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL
   OVER CONUS...FEATURING PRONOUNCED SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER SWRN
   STATES.  THIS TROUGH -- CONTAINING SEVERAL MIDLEVEL VORTICITY LOBES
   -- WILL BLEND CYCLONE NOW OFFSHORE SRN CA WITH NRN STREAM
   PERTURBATION CURRENTLY OVER SRN ID/NERN NV.  DOWNSTREAM...SHORTWAVE
   TROUGH NOW MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL/SRN TX WILL DEAMPLIFY FURTHER...
   ACCELERATE ENEWD AND MOVE OFFSHORE NC AMIDST CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT. 
   AT SURFACE...STRONGLY STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL REMAIN OVER MOST
   OF CENTRAL/ERN CONUS...IN ASSOCIATION WITH NEWD-MOVING POLAR
   ANTICYCLONE AND EXTENSIVE AREA OF DEEP SNOW COVER.
   
   --- CENTRAL/ERN TX TO NRN AL/MS ---
   MOIST ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT ATOP DENSE POLAR AIR MASS IS
   FORECAST TO WEAKEN THROUGH PERIOD -- AS MIDDLE-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
   MOVES PAST AREA AND DEAMPLIFIES.  HOWEVER...PARTICULARLY FIRST 6-9
   HOURS OF PERIOD...SUFFICIENT LOW-MIDLEVEL ASCENT AND
   DESTABILIZATION SHOULD LINGER TO SUPPORT CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL
   WITHIN ENEWD-MOVING PLUME OF PRECIP.  ELEVATED MUCAPE IN 100-300
   J/KG IS POSSIBLE...AND MUCH OF THIS CONVECTION WILL OCCUR ATOP
   SUBFREEZING SURFACE TEMPS. 
   
   --- SRN CA...GREAT BASIN TO FAR W TX ---
   BROAD PLUME OF COLD MIDLEVEL AIR IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD OVER OUTLOOK
   AREA W OF PECOS RIVER IN CONCURRENCE WITH DIABATIC BOUNDARY LAYER
   HEATING...STEEPENING LAPSE RATES.  MARGINAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
   CONTRIBUTE TO SBCAPE/MLCAPE 100-300 J/KG.  REGIME SHOULD SHIFT EWD
   AS FAR AS W TX AFTER DARK...WITHOUT INSOLATION BUT WITH WEAK LOW
   LEVEL WAA/MOIST ADVECTION ALONG WRN FRINGE OF ELEVATED TRAJECTORIES
   ORIGINATING OVER GULF.  TSTM OCCURRENCE ACROSS THIS ENTIRE REGION
   WILL BE EPISODIC/SPORADIC...WITH CUMULATIVE COVERAGE ISOLATED TO
   WIDELY SCATTERED.
   
   ..EDWARDS.. 02/25/03
   
   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED FOR 1300Z
        
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