STORM PREDICTION CENTER...NWS/NCEP...NORMAN OK 
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PGWE46 KWNS.
   
   VALID 211630Z - 221200Z
   
   THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF ERN TX...
   LA...MS..AL..FL PANHANDLE AND EXTREME SWRN GA TO THE RIGHT OF A
   LINE FROM 35 E PSX 50 SSE CLL 45 S TYR 20 SE ELD 35 NNE GWO 25 SSE
   MSL 25 NNW GAD CSG 25 S TLH.
   
   THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
   15 SE CRP 35 E COT HDO JCT SEP 15 E DAL 20 SSE LIT DYR 25 NW BNA
   40 SSE BWG 10 NNW CSV 25 ENE ATL 30 S MCN 40 WNW CTY.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 S P07 SPS
   35 N LIT OWB 15 NW HTS 40 NNE SSU CHO 20 S WAL ...CONT... DAB
   10 WSW PIE.
   
   ...SIGNIFICANT WIND EVENT WITH A FEW STRONG TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE
   FROM EASTERN TX EWD ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY LATER
   TODAY AND TONIGHT...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   POWERFUL UPPER LEVEL LOW WAS LOCATED ABOUT 180 NM S MRF AT 16Z IS
   FORECAST TO BECOME NEGATIVELY TITLED AS IT LIFTS NEWD INTO CENTRAL
   TX THIS AFTERNOON AND ACROSS AR OVERNIGHT AS STRONG JET MAX ROTATES
   OUT OF THE BASE OF THE TROUGH. AT THE SAME TIME...SURFACE LOW WAS
   LOCATED WEST OF VCT WITH WARM FRONT EXTENDING EWD ACROSS SERN TX
   AND SRN LA. SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN AND LIFT RAPIDLY NEWD
   INTO NERN TX THIS EVENING AND INTO THE TN VALLEY OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF
   UPPER TROUGH IN AREA OF STRONG DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. 
   
   ...ERN TX EWD ACROSS LA/MS/AL/WRN GA...
   WIDESPREAD CONVECTION IS ALREADY ONGOING FROM TX EWD INTO AL/GA.
   AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO DESTABILIZE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS
   SURFACE LOW MOVES INTO NERN TX AND WARM SECTOR SHIFTS LIFTS NWD.
   MID TO UPPER 60S ARE LOCATED SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT AND WILL
   OVERSPREAD SERN TX AND MUCH OF LA THIS AFTERNOON. ETA APPEARS TO
   UNDERFORECAST INSTABILITY DUE TO CONVECTION..BUT ETAKF SHOWS THAT
   SBCAPES WILL BE AT LEAST 1000 J/KG. STRONG ENVIRONMENTAL WIND
   PROFILES ARE RESULTING IN 40 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND THIS WILL
   INCREASE AS A SPEED MAX ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW SPREADS
   ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON/TONIGHT. COMPLEX PATTERN MAKES
   FORECAST OF CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION DIFFICULT...BUT EXPECT SUPERCELLS
   TO DEVELOP IN WARM SECTOR ACROSS SERN TX/LA THIS AFTERNOON.
   STRENGTHENING WIND PROFILES AND 20-30 KT 1 KM SHEAR SUGGESTS THAT
   TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE...ALONG WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. 
   
   STRONG DRY PUNCH ALONG WITH MID LEVEL WLY WINDS SHOULD HELP TO
   ORGANIZE CONVECTION INTO A LINE BY THIS EVENING. THE MOVEMENT OF
   THE UPPER SYSTEM AND STRONG WINDS MOVING IN FROM THE WEST SHOULD
   MOVE THIS POTENTIAL BOW ECHO EWD ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY AT 50-
   60 KT.  STRONG ENVIRONMENTAL WINDS AND THE SPEED OF THE SYSTEM
   SUGGESTS THE POSSIBILITY OF WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS. STRONGLY
   CURVED HODOGRAPHS IN THE LOWER KM/STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL WINDS/
   AND 1KM SHEAR FROM 30-35 KT INDICATE THAT TORNADOES...SOME
   STRONG...WILL BE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE LINE AND ALSO IN SUPERCELLS
   AHEAD OF THE LINE. 
   
   THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL BE MOST FAVORABLE FOR STRONG
   TORNADOES ACROSS LA/SRN MS/SRN AL BETWEEN 00-08Z. 
    
   THE MOTION OF THIS ENTIRE SYSTEM INDICATES THAT THE LINE MAY MOVE
   FASTER THAN INDICATED BY THE MODELS...WITH THE LINE EXPECTED TO BE
   IN WRN GA BY DAYBREAK. 
    
   ..IMY.. 02/21/03
    
   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED FOR 2000Z