STORM PREDICTION CENTER...NWS/NCEP...NORMAN OK
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PGWE46 KWNS.
VALID 070100Z - 071200Z
NO SVR TSTM AREAS FCST.
GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 ENE ORL PIE
...CONT... 20 ESE GPT 30 NE MOB 55 NNW CEW 25 ESE TOI 50 ENE ABY
40 W SAV 45 S FLO 20 NNW ILM 40 N HSE.
...CENTRAL/ERN GULF COAST AND CAROLINA COAST...
WEAK SFC LOW...JUST SOUTH OF MOB...CONTINUES TO SHIFT EWD ALONG
BOUNDARY THAT STRETCHES ACROSS THE NRN GULF OF MEXICO THIS EVENING.
LARGE SCALE ASCENT IN THE FORM OF WARM ADVECTION APPEARS TO BE
DRIVING BAND OF ELEVATED CONVECTION NORTHEAST OF THIS FEATURE
ACROSS THE FL PANHANDLE INTO SWRN GA WHERE 00Z SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
MUCAPE IS ON THE ORDER OF 200-400 J/KG. CONVECTIVE PARCELS MOST
LIKELY ARE ROOTED AROUND 850 MB WITH REASONABLE SPEED SHEAR WITHIN
CLOUD LAYER...BUT LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SIGNIFICANT TURNING.
THUNDERSTORM UPDRAFTS MAY BRIEFLY ORGANIZE BUT SHOULD REMAIN SUB-
SEVERE DUE TO MARGINAL INSTABILITY.
DOWNSTREAM...WITH WEDGE OF COOLER BOUNDARY LAYER AIR IN PLACE EAST
OF THE APPALACHIANS...IT APPEARS SFC LOW OVER THE NRN GULF WILL
WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AND CYCLOGENESIS WILL DEVELOP
JUST OFF THE CAROLINA COAST LATER TONIGHT. THIS SHOULD FOCUS
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION OVER THE WARMER WATERS WHERE LOW LEVEL
BAROCLINIC ZONE IS SHARPEST. A FEW STORMS MAY BRUSH THE OUTER
BANKS BUT LIMITED INSTABILITY WILL PREVENT SEVERE DEVELOPMENT.
..DARROW.. 02/07/03
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED FOR 0600Z
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