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Feb- 7-2003 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
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0100 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
      
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   STORM PREDICTION CENTER...NWS/NCEP...NORMAN OK 
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PGWE46 KWNS.
   
   VALID 070100Z - 071200Z
   
   NO SVR TSTM AREAS FCST.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 ENE ORL PIE
   ...CONT... 20 ESE GPT 30 NE MOB 55 NNW CEW 25 ESE TOI 50 ENE ABY
   40 W SAV 45 S FLO 20 NNW ILM 40 N HSE.
   
   
   
   ...CENTRAL/ERN GULF COAST AND CAROLINA COAST...
   
   WEAK SFC LOW...JUST SOUTH OF MOB...CONTINUES TO SHIFT EWD ALONG
   BOUNDARY THAT STRETCHES ACROSS THE NRN GULF OF MEXICO THIS EVENING.
   LARGE SCALE ASCENT IN THE FORM OF WARM ADVECTION APPEARS TO BE
   DRIVING BAND OF ELEVATED CONVECTION NORTHEAST OF THIS FEATURE
   ACROSS THE FL PANHANDLE INTO SWRN GA WHERE 00Z SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
   MUCAPE IS ON THE ORDER OF 200-400 J/KG.  CONVECTIVE PARCELS MOST
   LIKELY ARE ROOTED AROUND 850 MB WITH REASONABLE SPEED SHEAR WITHIN
   CLOUD LAYER...BUT LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SIGNIFICANT TURNING. 
   THUNDERSTORM UPDRAFTS MAY BRIEFLY ORGANIZE BUT SHOULD REMAIN SUB-
   SEVERE DUE TO MARGINAL INSTABILITY.
   
   DOWNSTREAM...WITH WEDGE OF COOLER BOUNDARY LAYER AIR IN PLACE EAST
   OF THE APPALACHIANS...IT APPEARS SFC LOW OVER THE NRN GULF WILL
   WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AND CYCLOGENESIS WILL DEVELOP
   JUST OFF THE CAROLINA COAST LATER TONIGHT.  THIS SHOULD FOCUS
   ADDITIONAL CONVECTION OVER THE WARMER WATERS WHERE LOW LEVEL
   BAROCLINIC ZONE IS SHARPEST.  A FEW STORMS MAY BRUSH THE OUTER
   BANKS BUT LIMITED INSTABILITY WILL PREVENT SEVERE DEVELOPMENT.  
    
   ..DARROW.. 02/07/03
   
   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED FOR 0600Z
        
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