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Jan-28-2003 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
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2000 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
      
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   STORM PREDICTION CENTER...NWS/NCEP...NORMAN OK 
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PGWE46 KWNS.
   
   VALID 282000Z - 291200Z
   
   NO SVR TSTM AREAS FCST.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSE VCT
   45 SSE AUS 35 E ACT 35 SW PGO 25 W HRO 25 SSE MDH 25 SW LEX JKL
   20 W TYS 15 SE GAD 35 SW TCL 25 S JAN 30 NW MSY 45 SSE HUM.
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   WLY / NWLY UPPER FLOW ACROSS THE ERN 2/3 OF THE CONUS ATTM WILL
   BECOME INCREASINGLY CYCLONIC BY THE END OF THE PERIOD AS SHORT-WAVE
   TROUGH OVER THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE PROVINCES AND ANOTHER IN WRN CO
   MOVE INTO THE PLAINS STATES.  AT THE SURFACE...COLD FRONT NOW
   EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO KS WILL MOVE SEWD AHEAD OF
   CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE...AND SHOULD EXTEND FROM THE OH VALLEY INTO
   THE OZARKS REGION TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD.
   
   ...E TX INTO THE LOWER MS / TN VALLEY REGION...
   LOW-LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION IS OBSERVED ACROSS THIS AREA ON SLY /
   SWLY LOW-LEVEL WINDS SOUTH OF APPROACHING FRONT.  A FEW
   THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED EARLIER IN NERN MEXICO IN REGION OF STEEPER
   MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ASSOCIATED WITH SRN STREAM UPPER LOW / VORT
   MAX.  AS THIS FEATURE MOVES ENEWD ALONG THE GULF COAST AND CO VORT
   MAX APPROACHES THE MID MS VALLEY...INCREASING QG FORCING AND SOME
   STEEPENING OF MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY CONTRIBUTE TO SCATTERED TO
   ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WITHIN MORE WIDESPREAD AREA OF
   RAIN.  ALTHOUGH A SURFACE-BASED STORM OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE
   WITHIN MOIST SURFACE AIRMASS ACROSS SERN TX THIS AFTERNOON...MOST
   OF THE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP LATER IN THE PERIOD IN
   WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION.
   
   ..GOSS.. 01/28/03
   
   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED FOR 0100Z
        
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