STORM PREDICTION CENTER...NWS/NCEP...NORMAN OK
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PGWE46 KWNS.
VALID 282000Z - 291200Z
NO SVR TSTM AREAS FCST.
GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSE VCT
45 SSE AUS 35 E ACT 35 SW PGO 25 W HRO 25 SSE MDH 25 SW LEX JKL
20 W TYS 15 SE GAD 35 SW TCL 25 S JAN 30 NW MSY 45 SSE HUM.
...SYNOPSIS...
WLY / NWLY UPPER FLOW ACROSS THE ERN 2/3 OF THE CONUS ATTM WILL
BECOME INCREASINGLY CYCLONIC BY THE END OF THE PERIOD AS SHORT-WAVE
TROUGH OVER THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE PROVINCES AND ANOTHER IN WRN CO
MOVE INTO THE PLAINS STATES. AT THE SURFACE...COLD FRONT NOW
EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO KS WILL MOVE SEWD AHEAD OF
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE...AND SHOULD EXTEND FROM THE OH VALLEY INTO
THE OZARKS REGION TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD.
...E TX INTO THE LOWER MS / TN VALLEY REGION...
LOW-LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION IS OBSERVED ACROSS THIS AREA ON SLY /
SWLY LOW-LEVEL WINDS SOUTH OF APPROACHING FRONT. A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED EARLIER IN NERN MEXICO IN REGION OF STEEPER
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ASSOCIATED WITH SRN STREAM UPPER LOW / VORT
MAX. AS THIS FEATURE MOVES ENEWD ALONG THE GULF COAST AND CO VORT
MAX APPROACHES THE MID MS VALLEY...INCREASING QG FORCING AND SOME
STEEPENING OF MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY CONTRIBUTE TO SCATTERED TO
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WITHIN MORE WIDESPREAD AREA OF
RAIN. ALTHOUGH A SURFACE-BASED STORM OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITHIN MOIST SURFACE AIRMASS ACROSS SERN TX THIS AFTERNOON...MOST
OF THE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP LATER IN THE PERIOD IN
WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION.
..GOSS.. 01/28/03
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED FOR 0100Z
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