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Jan-22-2003 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Categorical Graphic
2000 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
      
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   STORM PREDICTION CENTER...NWS/NCEP...NORMAN OK 
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PGWE46 KWNS.
   
   VALID 222000Z - 231200Z
   
   NO SVR TSTM AREAS FCST.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 ESE PNS DHN
   25 NE AYS 20 ESE SAV ...CONT... 10 ESE DAB 25 N PIE.
   
   ...EXTREME SRN GA AND NRN FL...
   ANALYSIS PLACES COLD FRONT FROM NEAR SSI TO WEAK LOW OVER SWRN GA
   THEN SWWD TO SERN COASTAL LA.  PER MORNING H85 ANALYSIS AND RECENT
   UPSWING IN CONVECTION ALONG THE COLD FRONT...WEAK WARM ADVECTION
   CONTINUES ABOVE FRONTAL SURFACE.  IT APPEARS LIKELY THAT BANDS OF
   SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP...THEN MOVE SEWD INTO
   NRN FL OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.  LACK OF STRONG SURFACE
   CONVERGENCE AND WEAK INSTABILITY ARGUE AGAINST SUSTAINED DEEP
   CONVECTION.  HOWEVER...IF A STRONGER UPDRAFT IS MAINTAINED...STEEP
   MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES AND FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR ARE SUFFICIENT
   FOR HAIL.
    
   ..RACY.. 01/22/03
   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED FOR 0100Z
        
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