SPC AC 300602

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0102 AM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025

   Valid 301200Z - 011200Z

   ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM
   NORTH-CENTRAL TX INTO SOUTHEAST OK...SOUTHWEST AR...AND EXTREME
   NORTHWEST LA...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible on later today into this
   evening, with the greatest risk expected across north-central Texas
   into the ArkLaTex region. Large to very large hail, damaging winds,
   and tornadoes are all possible, with some strong-tornado potential.

   ...Synopsis...
   A mid/upper-level trough will move across the southern Plains today.
   A surface low will move southwest into northeast TX, along an
   outflow-reinforced front. Farther east, a warm front will move
   northward across parts of the mid MS Valley, and remain nearly
   stationary into parts of the Mid Atlantic. 

   ...Southern Plains into the ArkLaTex/Ozarks...
   An MCS may be ongoing during the morning near the Red River Valley
   vicinity. This MCS may reintensify as it moves into a moist and
   unstable environment from eastern OK into western AR, accompanied by
   a threat for damaging winds, along with a localized hail/tornado
   threat. The effective front/outflow position will be modulated by
   this potential MCS, but this boundary will likely reside somewhere
   across north-central/northeast TX during the afternoon. Near/south
   of the boundary, diurnal heating of the moist airmass will result in
   scattered thunderstorm development during the afternoon, with
   deep-layer shear profiles supporting supercell development. 

   Large to very large hail will be a threat with any initial
   supercells. Also, with the approach of the mid/upper-level shortwave
   trough and attendant surface low, low-level flow is expected to
   remain rather strong through the day, supporting sufficient SRH for
   a tornado threat with any surface-based supercells, including some
   localized strong tornado potential. While uncertainty remains
   regarding mesoscale details regarding the outflow boundary, there is
   sufficient confidence in a corridor of supercell development for the
   addition of an Enhanced Risk. Eventual storm clustering could lead
   to development of a nocturnal MCS that could eventually approach
   parts of the lower MS Valley, with at least an isolated severe
   threat. 

   Additional strong to severe storms will be possible across parts of
   west TX, in closer proximity to the remnant midlevel low. Cold
   temperatures aloft and steep lapse rates will support a threat of
   hail and localized severe gusts, even though deep-layer flow/shear
   will be more modest within this regime. These storms may eventually
   spread toward southwest OK/northwest TX before weakening. 

   ...Parts of MS/OH Valleys...
   An MCV may move across parts of the MS/OH Valleys during the day, in
   the vicinity of the northward-moving warm front. Scattered storms
   may develop near the front during the afternoon, within a moist and
   destabilizing airmass. There is some potential for at least
   transient storm organization in the vicinity of the frontal zone,
   with an attendant threat for hail, locally damaging wind, and
   possibly a tornado. Uncertainty remains regarding the potential for
   early convection/cloudiness to disrupt destabilization in this area,
   but higher severe probabilities may eventually be needed if trends
   support robust storm development during the afternoon/evening. 

   ...Southern VA/northern NC...
   Scattered storm development will be possible near the front across
   parts of VA/NC. Deep-layer flow/shear will generally be weak, but
   steep low-level lapse rates could support locally damaging outflow
   winds with the strongest storms.

   ..Dean/Weinman.. 04/30/2025

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z