STORM PREDICTION CENTER...NWS/NCEP...NORMAN OK 
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PGWE46 KWNS.
   
   VALID 231630Z - 241200Z
   
   THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM FTW
   ABI 40 N MAF 20 E LVS 25 SW PUB DEN CYS 40 N BFF 55 NW MHN
   15 WNW BUB HSI SLN PNC ADM FTW.
   
   THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
   25 NW ROC 20 SSE DUJ 25 SE LBE 30 SSW EKN 10 E BKW 30 WNW BLF
   25 NE 5I3 10 NW HTS 20 ESE CMH MFD 20 WNW CLE.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 W RRT 35 SE JMS
   30 ESE ABR BKX SPW 50 SSW FOD LWD 45 SSE P35 40 W TBN 30 SE HRO
   HOT 10 S TXK 50 S TYR 15 E AUS 30 NW SAT 20 SE DRT ...CONT...
   45 E DUG 30 ESE SAD 25 NE SOW 55 NNE INW 45 SE PGA 40 E SGU
   10 ENE CDC 30 WNW 4HV 45 NNE CNY 40 E GJT 55 ENE GUC 4FC
   25 NNE RWL 40 ENE WRL 35 SSW 4BQ 50 ENE 4BQ 35 SSE SDY 55 NNW ISN.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 ENE AQQ 20 S SSI
   ...CONT... 35 E SAV AHN 30 S TYS 15 W LUK 30 SSW FDY 20 N FWA
   30 WSW GRR 25 ESE MBL 35 E PLN ...CONT... 60 W ART 20 N ITH
   35 SSW BGM 15 W CXY 20 WNW DCA NHK 20 ENE WAL.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 SSE BNO
   50 NNW OWY 20 E OWY 20 SW BAM 25 ENE BIH 65 ESE FAT 30 SSW FAT
   25 ENE SAC 40 WSW SVE 35 SSW 4LW 55 ENE 4LW 65 SSE BNO.
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   BROAD UPPER RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE WEST AND A TROUGH IN THE
   EAST...WITH MODERATELY STRONG NWLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE PLAINS
   STATES. WITHIN THIS PATTERN...AN UPPER LOW LOCATED OVER ERN WI WILL
   SHIFT SEWD INTO NRN INDIANA BY LATE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE ERN
   GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT. IN RESPONSE TO THIS SYSTEM...A WEAK SURFACE
   LOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP IN ERN OH BY EVENING...ALONG AN INVERTED
   SURFACE TROUGH STRETCHING FROM ERN OH SWD INTO WRN VA...WITH THE
   TROUGH SHIFTING EWD TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT. 
   
   ...SRN AND CENTRAL PLAINS...
   MCS OVER NRN OK/SRN KS HAS WEAKENED WITH DIMINISHING WARM ADVECTION
   BETWEEN 850-700 MB. OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM THIS CONVECTION EXTENDS
   FROM EXTREME SERN CO SEWD TO NEAR OKC. VIS IMAGERY SUGGESTS THIS
   BOUNDARY IS STILL MOVING SWWD. THOUGH THE AIR MASS IS STRONGLY
   CAPPED TO THE WEST OF THIS BOUNDARY...STRONG HEATING MAY PROVIDE
   SUFFICIENT CONVERGENCE FOR SURFACE BASED STORMS TO DEVELOP FROM
   SERN CO INTO THE TX/OK PANHANDLES BY LATE AFTERNOON. AMA 12Z
   SOUNDING SHOWED MUCAPES AROUND 2000 J/KG AND TEMPERATURES WARMING
   TO NEAR 80 DEGREES WOULD RESULT MUCAPES IN EXCESS OF 3000 J/KG.
   THIS INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH STRONG DIRECTIONAL TURNING/ DEEP
   LAYER SHEAR OF 40 KT/ WOULD SUPPORT SUPERCELLS. IF STORMS ARE ABLE
   TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON...A TORNADO OR TWO WOULD BE POSSIBLE...
   THOUGH THE MAIN THREAT WOULD BE WIND DAMAGE AND HAIL. UPPER FLOW
   PATTERN IS ALSO FAVORABLE FOR COLD POOL DEVELOPMENT AND POSSIBILITY
   OF SEWD MOVING MCS OVERNIGHT ALONG REMNANTS OF MORNING OUTFLOW
   BOUNDARY.
   
   MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DOES NOT DEPICT ANY SIGNIFICANT
   SHORTWAVE TROUGHS APPROACHING THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...SO HEATING 
   AND STRENGTHENING UPSLOPE FLOW ARE NEEDED TO DRIVE STORM
   INITIATION. DESPITE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE ERN CO
   PLAINS...STRONG SOLAR RADIATION AND DEEPENING BOUNDARY LAYER
   MOISTURE SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO AID IN CONVECTIVE INITIATION ALONG
   THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF CO. NWLY MID LEVEL FLOW AT 25-40 KT WILL
   CREATE STRONG VEERING PROFILES AND VERTICAL SHEAR FOR STORM
   ROTATION. LARGE HAIL APPEARS TO BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT WITH
   ANY AFTERNOON CONVECTION. HOWEVER...STORMS ARE LIKELY TO CONGEAL
   INTO ONE OR MORE CLUSTERS OF STORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS BECOMING
   THE GREATER THREAT AS THEY MOVE SEWD OVERNIGHT. 
   
   ...UPPER OH VALLEY...
   STRONG FORCING WITHIN LEFT EXIT REGION OF JET MAX ASSOCIATED WITH
   UPPER LOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
   EVENING. A NARROW WEDGE OF SUNSHINE HAS PREVAILED THIS MORNING 
   ACROSS WV NEWD INTO SWRN PA. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY WILL NOT BE
   OVERLY IMPRESSIVE....MUCAPES SHOULD BE AROUND 500 J/KG. CONVERGENCE
   IS FORECAST TO INCREASE ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH AS UPPER SUPPORT
   APPROACHES AND MOIST ENVIRONMENT WOULD SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS THIS 
   AFTERNOON/EVENING. DESPITE THE WEAK INSTABILITY...LOW WBZ HEIGHTS
   ...STRONG FORCING AND 500 MB TEMPERATURES COOLING TO AROUND -20C
   SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR STORMS TO PRODUCE SEVERE HAIL AND POSSIBLY
   WIND DAMAGE. 
   
   ..IMY.. 05/23/03
   
   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED FOR 2000Z