Mesoscale Discussion 1218
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0310 PM CDT Sun Jun 09 2024

   Areas affected...parts of northwestern through north central
   Arkansas

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 092010Z - 092215Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

   SUMMARY...Intensifying convection, including one or two storms at
   least occasionally taking on supercell structure, appears likely
   through 4-6 PM CDT.  This may pose a risk for large hail, locally
   damaging wind gusts and perhaps some potential for producing a
   tornado.

   DISCUSSION...Deepening convective development, including recent
   initiation of thunderstorm activity, is ongoing northwest of
   Russellville AR.  This is where low-level convergence has become
   maximized near the intersection of a southward advancing cold front
   and the stalling western flank of convective outflow from overnight
   convection.

   Beneath 30-35 kt west-northwesterly flow around 500 mb, surface
   temperatures are warming through the lower/mid 90s F in a narrow
   corridor just to the southwest of the outflow boundary, extending
   across and east-southeast of the Little Rock area.  This is
   occurring beneath a remnant plume of elevated mixed-layer air, where
   seasonably high boundary-layer moisture content appears to be
   contributing to mixed-layer CAPE on the order of 2000-3000 J/kg.

   It is possible that this is being aided by forcing for ascent
   associated with a subtle mid/upper perturbation.  Regardless, there
   appears sufficient deep-layer shear to support intensifying
   convection and the evolution of at least transient supercell
   structures with increasing inflow of the unstable boundary-layer
   air.  This likely will pose a risk for severe hail, locally strong
   surface gusts and perhaps at least some risk for a tornado while
   slowly propagating east-southeastward through 4-6 PM CDT.

   ..Kerr/Gleason.. 06/09/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...MEG...LZK...TSA...

   LAT...LON   35829425 35949391 36079321 35819217 35339092 34389147
               35079328 35209385 35479434 35829425