Mesoscale Discussion 1046
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0132 PM CDT Tue May 28 2024

   Areas affected...portions of southwestern Texas

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

   Valid 281832Z - 282000Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

   SUMMARY...The severe threat should increase through the afternoon,
   with a possibly more rapid uptick in storm intensification for cells
   interacting with an outflow boundary. These storms will initially
   have a damaging gust/hail threat, though a tornado cannot be ruled
   out with storms interacting with the boundary. Convective trends are
   being monitored for the need of a WW issuance.

   DISCUSSION...Rapidly deepening CU have developed over the Trans
   Pecos region in Texas, atop a deep and well-mixed boundary layer.
   Based on the latest RAP forecast soundings, the boundary layer
   extends to somewhere between 600-500 mb, so convective initiation
   will result in high-based thunderstorms. Given the 9-10+ C/km
   low-level lapse rates in the boundary layer, any of the more intense
   storms that form could produce dry downbursts, and a dry microburst
   capable of 65+ kt gusts cannot be completely ruled out. As the
   storms progress eastward, they will move into an increasingly
   moister and more unstable airmass. At the same time, they will
   interact with a southwestward-moving outflow boundary generated by
   an earlier MCS. Enhanced lift along this boundary may support an
   uptick in thunderstorm intensity for any updrafts crossing this
   boundary. Elongated hodographs and 40+ kts of effective bulk shear
   suggest that multicells and splitting supercells will be the main
   modes of convection, with large hail possible. Some stones may
   exceed 2 inches in diameter.

   It is unclear precisely when an uptick in greater severe coverage
   will occur. Nonetheless, the CAPE/shear parameter space and synoptic
   environment suggest that an appreciable severe threat will unfold at
   some point this afternoon, when a WW issuance will ultimately be
   necessary.

   ..Squitieri/Hart.. 05/28/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...MAF...

   LAT...LON   31160420 31940359 32250235 31890110 31280067 30550068
               30070102 30030226 30050313 30400407 31160420