Mesoscale Discussion 0570
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0250 PM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025

   Areas affected...parts of sern OK...nern TX...swrn AR...nwrn LA

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 261950Z - 262145Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...Ongoing thunderstorm development is likely to continue to
   intensify through 4-6 PM CDT, including a couple of supercells
   posing a risk for severe hail, locally strong surface gusts, and
   perhaps a brief tornado or two.

   DISCUSSION...The early day convective cluster has generally
   weakened, with at least a couple of remnant mesoscale circulations
   continuing to migrate northeastward and eastward into/across parts
   of south central Kansas and northeastern Oklahoma.  The Rapid
   Refresh indicates that there is a lingering pocket of relatively
   cold mid-level air (-12 to -13C around 500 mb), associated with a
   low-amplitude short wave perturbation overspreading the Red River
   Valley vicinity, within moderate westerly mid/upper flow.  It
   appears that this is supporting an increase in thunderstorm
   development west-northwest of Durant toward the Ark-La-Tex vicinity.

   The more recent convection is focused along a diffuse near surface
   baroclinic zone within weak surface troughing, where inflow
   emanating from a seasonably moist boundary layer characterized by
   CAPE in excess of 2000 J/kg seems likely to support further
   intensification into late afternoon.  This may include supercell
   structures with potential to produce severe hail.  Low-level
   hodographs are generally forecast to remain modest, but a brief
   tornado might not be out of the question.

   ..Kerr/Smith.. 04/26/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...

   LAT...LON   35039549 34629405 33879322 32719385 33069486 33929644
               34409655 35039549 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN