Mesoscale Discussion 0568
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0105 PM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025

   Areas affected...parts of cntrl/ern VA ...cntrl and srn MD...DE

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 261805Z - 262000Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms may continue to gradually develop
   through 3-5 PM EDT, with some accompanied by small hail and a few
   strong, potentially damaging, wind gusts.

   DISCUSSION...The initiation of widely scattered to scattered
   thunderstorm development appears underway to the east of the Blue
   Ridge, where low-level lapse rates are steepening most substantively
   in response to insolation and mixing, in the wake of mid/high
   cloudiness and light rain still overspreading northern Mid Atlantic
   coastal areas.  Through 19-21Z, the Rapid Refresh suggests that
   continued boundary-layer warming may contribute to mixed-layer CAPE
   as high as 1000 J/kg, within pre-frontal surface troughing across
   central Virginia, northeastward toward the Delmarva.

   Mid/upper-level lapse rates are likely to remain weak, as stronger
   cooling aloft lags to the northwest of the region.  But, with some
   strengthening of westerly mid-level wind fields (to 30-35 kt around
   500 mb), the environment may become conducive to small multi-cell
   clusters, accompanied by a few potentially damaging surface gusts
   which could approach severe limits.

   ..Kerr/Smith.. 04/26/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...LWX...RNK...

   LAT...LON   37597908 38277867 39457706 39687595 39527547 38907501
               38237530 37787597 37497656 37077765 37047899 37597908 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH