Mesoscale Discussion 0567
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0919 AM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025

   Areas affected...parts of sern OK...nrn TX

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 261419Z - 261615Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...A cluster of strong thunderstorm activity may be
   maintained east-northeastward across and just north of the Red River
   vicinity of southeastern Oklahoma into midday.  However, the risk
   for severe hail and wind appears unlikely to substantively increase
   from what it has been the past several hours.

   DISCUSSION...Low-level warm advection, focused near the northeastern
   periphery of a remnant plume of more strongly capping elevated
   mixed-layer air across northwestern Texas, may be the primary
   forcing for ongoing convective development across and north of the
   Red River vicinity.  Convection remains strongest in a small cluster
   now east and south of Fort Sill OK, near one more notable meso-beta
   scale cyclonic circulation which has evolved.  A broader MCV may be
   slowly migrating across parts of northwestern into north central
   Oklahoma.

   This is embedded within a moderately sheared (due to clockwise
   turning of wind fields/shear vectors with height), but modest (on
   the order of 20 kt) southwesterly mean flow, maintained by
   seasonably moist east-southeasterly updraft inflow.  Based on
   objective analyses and the 12Z sounding from FWD, this is
   characterized by CAPE up to 1500 J/kg, which may not change
   appreciably as activity continues east-northeastward near/north of
   the Red River into mid day.  

   It is possible that a destabilizing boundary-layer, in the presence
   of weakening inhibition across the Ark-La-Tex and Red River
   vicinity, could become supportive of intensifying updrafts along the
   convective outflow later this afternoon.  However, until then,
   potential for appreciable intensification of ongoing activity
   appears low in the near term.

   ..Kerr/Smith.. 04/26/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...TSA...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...

   LAT...LON   35009770 35189600 34869528 33299545 32859693 33450017
               33819873 34039815 34339794 35009770 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN