Mesoscale Discussion 0230
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1046 AM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024

   Areas affected...Portions of north-central TX and central/eastern OK

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

   Valid 141546Z - 141745Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

   SUMMARY...An increasing threat for very large (2-4 inch) hail,
   severe/damaging winds, and perhaps a couple of tornadoes will
   necessitate watch issuance.

   DISCUSSION...Cu is deepening late this morning across western north
   into north-central TX and central OK along a surface trough/dryline
   feature. A large reservoir of buoyancy is already present across
   this region per area 12Z soundings, with 2000-2500 J/kg of MLCAPE
   based on 15Z mesoanalysis. Continued daytime heating will likely
   result in further erosion of the low-level cap, and convective
   initiation seems likely within an hour, or sooner (by 1630Z/1130 AM
   CDT), especially across north-central TX into south-central OK. Very
   large hail of 2-4 inches in diameter will likely be the main threat
   with supercells that develop, as steep mid-level lapse rates and
   strong deep-layer shear of 40-50 kt easily support robust mid-level
   updraft rotation and intensity. The tornado threat is less clear,
   especially with time this afternoon as the low-level jet across this
   region is forecast to gradually veer and weaken through the day.
   But, sufficient low-level shear currently exists to support some
   low-level updraft rotation and associated tornado risk.
   Severe/damaging winds also appear possible, especially if any small
   clusters can develop with time later this afternoon. Given current
   convective/observational trends, watch issuance will likely be
   needed soon.

   ..Gleason/Goss.. 03/14/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...TSA...FWD...OUN...

   LAT...LON   33619863 35589696 36289620 36659549 36559465 35749455
               34959509 33619640 33049704 33039840 33159882 33619863