Mesoscale Discussion 0229
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1024 AM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024

   Areas affected...Portions of eastern OK...western/northern AR...and
   southern MO

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 141524Z - 141700Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...Trends are being closely monitored for robust thunderstorm
   development this morning. If convection forms, it would quickly
   become severe and warrant watch issuance.

   DISCUSSION...12Z soundings from OUN, FWD, SHV, and LZK all show a
   stout cap in place in the 850-700 mb layer. Still, recent visible
   satellite trends show the cu field across eastern OK into
   northwestern AR is slowly building and becoming somewhat more
   agitated as filtered daytime heating occurs. A rich, moist low-level
   airmass, with surface dewpoints generally in the low to mid 60s, is
   already in place across this area and into southern MO along/south
   of a convectively reinforced boundary. The presence of steep
   mid-level lapse rates is also contributing to substantial
   instability, with MUCAPE of 2000-3000 J/kg. Modestly enhanced
   southwesterly low-level flow veers and gradually strengthens with
   height through mid/upper levels, which is supporting around 40-50 kt
   of deep-layer shear.

   Primary uncertainty is when robust convection will initiate, as
   forcing aloft remains nebulous/subtle, with mid-level heights
   generally remaining neutral or slightly rising over the next couple
   of hours. But, if convection forms on the earlier side of what
   convection-allowing guidance suggests is possible, namely in the
   next 1-2 hours, then it would quickly become severe given the rather
   favorable thermodynamic and kinematic environment present. Large to
   very large hail, severe/damaging winds, and tornadoes all appear
   possible if thunderstorms can initiate with the gradual erosion of
   the cap. While not immediately likely, observational and convective
   trends will be closely monitored for signs of increasing
   thunderstorm potential this morning, which could necessitate watch
   issuance before noon.

   ..Gleason/Goss.. 03/14/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...SHV...TSA...

   LAT...LON   34529533 36559452 37089324 36919246 36119228 35129287
               34329370 34069442 34179509 34529533