Mesoscale Discussion 0199
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0206 PM CST Thu Mar 07 2024

   Areas affected...Parts of the TX Big Country/Concho Valley

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 072006Z - 072200Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

   SUMMARY...The severe-thunderstorm threat is expected to increase
   later this afternoon. A couple of supercells will be possible, with
   a threat of large hail, isolated severe gusts, and possibly a
   tornado or two.

   DISCUSSION...Diurnal heating of an increasingly moist airmass is
   ongoing this afternoon, mainly to the south and west of a band of
   elevated convection extending from west-central to north-central TX.
   Steep midlevel lapse rates atop the increasing moisture are
   supporting MLCAPE approaching 1000 J/kg, though poor upper-level
   lapse rates within a cirrus plume are likely limiting the depth of
   stronger buoyancy. 

   Strong mid/upper-level flow is supporting effective shear of 60+ kt
   across the region, more than sufficient for organized storms. The
   details of storm initiation and coverage remain somewhat uncertain,
   though continued heating and diminishing MLCINH will likely support
   isolated to widely scattered storm development along a diffuse
   dryline later this afternoon. Some increasing cumulus has also been
   noted near San Angelo, in the vicinity of an apparent outflow
   boundary, where surface winds are backed to more of an easterly
   direction. This boundary could serve as a focus for storm initiation
   as well, or else provide a favored corridor for storms that move in
   from the west late this afternoon or early this evening. 

   With favorable shear in place, at least a couple supercells could
   develop by late afternoon, posing a threat of hail (potentially in
   the 1.5 to 2 inch diameter range) and localized severe gusts. Some
   tornado threat could also evolve, especially where surface winds are
   backed near the remnant outflow boundary. Watch issuance is possible
   by 4 PM CST if convective initiation appears imminent.

   ..Dean/Hart.. 03/07/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...FWD...SJT...LUB...MAF...

   LAT...LON   30830180 31650207 32160196 32640146 33250079 33279938
               33209863 32619856 31709881 31159915 30829937 30639963
               30510042 30520102 30720161 30830180