Mesoscale Discussion 0197
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0127 PM CST Thu Mar 07 2024

   Areas affected...North central Oklahoma to southeast Kansas

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 071927Z - 072200Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

   SUMMARY...Thunderstorm development is expected across north-central
   Oklahoma and southeast Kansas in the coming hours. These storms will
   likely pose a threat for large hail and damaging winds, and perhaps
   a tornado or two. Trends are being monitored for a possible watch
   issuance.

   DISCUSSION...Over the past several hours, gradually clearing skies
   across north-central OK and south-central KS have allowed
   temperatures to warm into the mid 60s to low 70s. Although diurnal
   mixing has scoured moisture to the south of the synoptic frontal
   zone (dewpoints have fallen into the mid to upper 40s), dewpoints
   remain in the mid 50s along the surface warm front and to the north
   of a differential heating/outflow boundary draped across northern
   OK. With steep mid-level lapse rates overspreading the region,
   MLCAPE is gradually increasing with further improvement possible
   amid a subtle influx of low-level moisture from northeast OK within
   the southeasterly flow regime. Thunderstorm initiation is probable
   in the coming hours in the vicinity of the surface low and/or along
   the differential heating boundary as ascent associated with a subtle
   mid-level perturbation overspreads the region (denoted by a cirrus
   plume currently over the TX Panhandle). Latest HRRR/WOFS guidance
   suggests this should occur during the 21-23 UTC time frame. Wind
   profiles will be favorable for supercells, and enhanced low-level
   helicity between the differential heating boundary and warm front
   may support a locally higher tornado threat across northern
   OK/south-central KS. Further downstream into southeast KS, the
   gradual erosion of the stratiform rain/cloud field casts uncertainty
   on destabilization, but a few robust storms will likely persist and
   pose a hail/wind threat this evening. Trends will continue to be
   monitored for watch issuance.

   ..Moore/Hart.. 03/07/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...

   LAT...LON   36499692 36689742 36789777 36839802 37119812 37539782
               38059705 38309623 38469552 38439498 38099470 37759464
               37309480 36949538 36669625 36499692