Mesoscale Discussion 1613
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1156 AM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024

   Areas affected...Parts of the Mid Atlantic

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 141656Z - 141930Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Isolated damaging wind is possible this afternoon.

   DISCUSSION...A couple of strong storms have developed across
   southeast PA early this afternoon, within a warm, moist, and
   generally uncapped environment. The 12Z IAD/WAL soundings and recent
   forecast soundings depict a warm layer around 600 mb that will limit
   instability to some extent, but continued strong heating should
   allow for MLCAPE to increase into the 1500-2500 J/kg this afternoon.
   Low/midlevel flow is generally weak, but somewhat stronger
   upper-level flow could allow for some occasional modest storm
   organization, and the strongest storms will be capable of producing
   isolated damaging wind and small to near-severe hail. 

   Storm coverage is somewhat more uncertain with southward extent, but
   at least isolated development is expected into parts of MD and
   eastern VA, where temperatures rising well into the 90s F and
   steepening low-level lapse rates will support an isolated
   damaging-wind threat with any robust updrafts later this afternoon.

   ..Dean/Hart.. 07/14/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...OKX...PHI...AKQ...CTP...LWX...

   LAT...LON   38427793 39837661 40987540 41077456 40787409 39797426
               38357576 37807645 37537763 37927807 38427793