Mesoscale Discussion 1593
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0220 PM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024
Areas affected...much of central and southern Nevada into far
southwestern Utah and extreme northwestern Arizona
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 131920Z - 132145Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...Isolated severe gusts may accompany potential microbursts
with the stronger storms today. A WW issuance is not expected.
DISCUSSION...Agitated cumulus, with a few attempts at convective
initiation, have been noted over the past couple of hours based on
MRMS mosaic radar imagery, visible satellite, and NLDN lightning
data. The boundary layer has become deep and well mixed, with 19Z
mesoanalysis showing 9-11 C/km 0-3 km lapse rates already in place,
and RAP forecast soundings depicting inverted-v profiles extending
to 600 mb. Mid-level monsoonal moisture overspreading the mixed
boundary layer/steep lapse rates will promote 250-500 J/kg
SBCAPE/MLCAPE through the afternoon, which is more than sufficient
to support thunderstorm updrafts. Vertical wind shear should be
weak, so thunderstorms should be pulse-cellular in nature, with any
severe gusts originating from localized, short-lived microbursts.
Despite the severe gust potential, the coverage of the severe should
be sparse enough to preclude a WW issuance.
..Squitieri/Hart.. 07/13/2024
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...SLC...VEF...LKN...REV...
LAT...LON 36291587 37691742 39221815 40351784 40831681 40911525
40441418 39091296 37701256 36661304 36141394 36291587
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