Mesoscale Discussion 1583
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0138 AM CDT Fri Jul 12 2024

   Areas affected...Southeast Kansas...Southwest Missouri...Far
   Northeast Oklahoma

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 120638Z - 120845Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...A threat for isolated large hail will likely continue for
   a few more hours from southeast Kansas into southwest Missouri and
   far northeast Oklahoma. The convective cluster is expected to remain
   too disorganized for watch issuance.

   DISCUSSION...Over the last couple of hours, scattered thunderstorms
   have developed across southeast Kansas, with embedded pulse hail
   events. This activity is located along the eastern edge of a pocket
   of moderate instability, where the RAP has MLCAPE in the 2000 to
   2500 J/kg range. The storms appear to be supported by a
   strengthening low-level jet, that is in the 30 to 35 knot range
   according the RAP. As this feature continues, thunderstorm
   development will likely persist. In addition, RAP forecast soundings
   in far southeast Kansas have 850 to 500 mb lapse rates near 7 C/km,
   and enough deep-layer shear for an isolated large-hail threat. The
   hail threat is expected continue for a few more hours, before the
   storm complex gradually diminishes.

   ..Broyles/Edwards.. 07/12/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...

   LAT...LON   37739560 36849546 36519515 36439466 36529416 36789381
               37349366 37869369 38329393 38539429 38579466 38549506
               38399536 38139555 37739560