Mesoscale Discussion 1551
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0334 PM CDT Sun Jul 07 2024

   Areas affected...Texas Panhandle/South Plains into
   southwestern/central Oklahoma

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 072034Z - 072230Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...A few storms are possible from the Texas South Plains into
   central Oklahoma. Discrete storms would pose a risk for large hail,
   though severe winds will likely be the predominant threat. Potential
   for upscale growth into a cluster/linear segment is possible. Trends
   are being monitored for a possible watch later this afternoon.

   DISCUSSION...Weak warm advection over the cold pool from this
   mornings convection has contributed to the development of elevated
   storms in parts of western and central Oklahoma. The outflow itself
   has modified and MLCAPE has risen to around 2000 J/kg. With
   additional heating and the approach of the cold front, at least
   isolated development is possible within the next few hours. Steep
   mid-level lapse rates and 30-35 kts of effective shear will promote
   supercells capable of large hail and severe winds.

   Farther west, cumulus have been deepening in the Texas South Plains
   within a weak surface trough. A few additional storms are possible
   in this region as well as suggested by some of the latest CAM
   guidance. Large temperature-dewpoint spreads here would likely mean
   a quicker transition to a linear storm mode and a primary risk of
   severe winds.

   With storm coverage uncertain, trends will need to be monitored for
   a possible watch later this afternoon.

   ..Wendt/Guyer.. 07/07/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...LUB...AMA...

   LAT...LON   34450201 35320125 35629930 35609730 35319673 34529663
               33829786 33750040 33500129 33610220 33940232 34450201