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Mesoscale Discussion 1304 |
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Mesoscale Discussion 1304
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0300 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024
Areas affected...Southern/Eastern WI
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 172000Z - 172200Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent
SUMMARY...Thunderstorms capable of isolated hail and/or damaging
gusts are possible across southern WI this afternoon and evening.
Trends will be monitored for possible watch issuance.
DISCUSSION...Temperatures have warmed in the upper 80s/low 90s
across southern WI/eastern WI, amid dewpoints in the upper 60s/low
70s. These very warm and moist surface conditions are helping
support strong buoyancy, despite relatively poor lapse rates across
the region. Recent mesoanalysis estimates MLCAPE is around 2000 to
2500 J/kg, with little to no convective inhibition. Low-level
convergence along and ahead of a stationary boundary extending from
OCQ (about 30 miles north-northeast of GRB) southwestward through
LNR in far southwest WI is contributing to convective initiation
within this unstable airmass. Vertical shear is modest across the
region, with effective bulk shear less than 20 kt. This lack of
stronger shear is expected to promote a predominantly multicellular
mode, but a few updrafts could still become strong enough to produce
severe hail and/or a strong, water-loaded downburst. Overall
coverage of severe is currently expected to remain isolated,
limiting the need for a watch, but convective trends will be
monitored closely.
..Mosier/Gleason.. 06/17/2024
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...GRB...MKX...ARX...
LAT...LON 42619033 42979067 43759005 44508922 45008830 44688754
44238745 43648768 42908779 42608825 42548939 42619033
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