Mesoscale Discussion 1118
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0735 PM CDT Sat Jun 01 2024

   Areas affected...parts of the northern TX Panhandle into western OK

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

   Valid 020035Z - 020200Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

   SUMMARY...Ongoing strong to severe storms in southern KS may
   eventually cluster and move south into parts of the Panhandles and
   western OK. Additional storms are also possible farther south with a
   risk primarily for damaging winds and hail. A new WW will be issued
   shortly.

   DISCUSSION...As of 0035 UTC, regional radar and satellite analysis
   showed a loose cluster of strong to severe storms ongoing near the
   KS/OK Panhandle border. Some new development was also noted farther
   south into TX. SPC mesoanalysis shows 1000-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE and
   35-40 kt of effective shear which will likely support some risk for
   organized updrafts capable of severe wind and hail. Hi-res guidance
   suggests clustering should continue into this evening, though the
   southern extent of the severe risk remains unclear. While storms
   have been slow to organize early this evening, the broadly favorable
   environment will support a severe risk. A new WW will be issued
   shortly.

   ..Lyons/Hart.. 06/02/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...OUN...DDC...AMA...PUB...

   LAT...LON   36990219 37050103 37040025 37050013 37009851 36959815
               36699796 36399814 36029859 35519938 35509979 35520043
               35670151 35760202 36050215 36990219