Mesoscale Discussion 0135
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0744 PM CST Sun Feb 11 2024

   Areas affected...Parts of central/southeast LA

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 120144Z - 120315Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...Storms may increase in coverage later tonight, with at
   least some threat for all severe hazards. Watch issuance is
   possible.

   DISCUSSION...A strong storm has recently developed just off of the
   LA coast, which is now moving onshore. Relatively steep midlevel
   lapse rates atop rich low-level moisture (as noted on the 00Z LCH
   and LIX soundings) are supporting MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg. This
   instability in combination with strong effective shear (50+ kt) will
   support supercell potential through the evening. 

   Storm coverage in the short term may remain isolated, but as a
   mid/upper-level low and attendant cold front approach from the west,
   additional storm development will be possible later this evening.
   Large hail and locally gusty winds will the primary initial threats.
   Some tornado threat could also evolve with time, especially if any
   sustained supercell can move into southeast LA, where sufficient
   low-level shear/SRH will likely persist tonight. 

   Watch issuance remains possible this evening, if a sustained
   supercell threat appears imminent.

   ..Dean/Hart.. 02/12/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...LIX...LCH...

   LAT...LON   29399297 30539239 30859144 30919093 30729056 30279033
               29799044 29429066 29199096 29199139 29229197 29259227
               29399297