Mesoscale Discussion 0094
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0244 PM CST Sat Jan 27 2024

   Areas affected...parts of northeastern Alabama into southeastern
   Tennessee and adjacent northwestern Georgian

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 272044Z - 272315Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Showers and thunderstorms overspreading the region late
   this afternoon may become capable of posing at least some risk for
   producing a tornado or two.

   DISCUSSION...Persistent convective development, spreading across the
   southern Georgia/Alabama state border vicinity, western Florida
   Panhandle and north central into northeastern Gulf of Mexico, has
   impeded low-level moisture return to the warm sector of a developing
   surface cyclone, farther inland across the central Gulf States into
   Tennessee Valley.  However, Rapid Refresh forecast soundings suggest
   that weak boundary-layer destabilization is ongoing, ahead of the
   eastward advancing cold front which trails the modest, but
   deepening, surface low center as it migrates north-northeastward
   through middle Tennessee.  This is being aided by insolation beneath
   the low/mid-level dry slot, and the onset of mid-level cooling,
   which are contributing to sufficient conditional and convective
   instability to support a line of strengthening thunderstorm
   development near/just ahead of the front.  

   While this convection is generally low-topped in nature, strong
   shear through the convective layer may contribute to further
   organization and the evolution of embedded supercell structures. 
   The evolution of more discrete cells just ahead of this activity may
   not be out of the question, as it advances toward the Cumberland
   Plateau/southern Appalachians vicinity through early evening.

   Across parts of northeastern Alabama into adjacent portions of
   southeastern Tennessee and northwestern Georgia, Rapid Refresh
   forecast soundings have indicated that weak boundary-layer
   destabilization through 21-00Z may coincide with low-level
   hodographs characterized by sizable clockwise curvature, before
   trending linear near the approaching cold front.  While the overall
   environment, at best, may be marginal, there appears some window of
   opportunity for convection to pose a risk for producing a tornado or
   two through early evening.

   ..Kerr/Hart.. 01/27/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...MRX...FFC...OHX...BMX...HUN...

   LAT...LON   34108679 34748678 35158643 35418518 34248546 33568652
               34108679