Mesoscale Discussion 0093
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1238 PM CST Sat Jan 27 2024

   Areas affected...Portions of the Florida Panhandle

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 271838Z - 272045Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...A line of organized storms will impact portions of the
   Florida Panhandle in the next two hours. Strong/severe gusts are the
   main concern, though a tornado cannot be ruled out.

   DISCUSSION...Latest radar data from KEVX depicts a well-organized
   line of storms south of Pensacola FL tracking east-northeastward at
   around 45 kt. This convection is feeding off of the northern
   periphery of a high theta-e air mass over the north-central Gulf of
   Mexico. Current thinking is that 50 kt of 0-6 km shear (sampled by
   KEVX VWP) oriented perpendicular to the leading-edge gust front
   should support the maintenance of these storms. Ahead of the line,
   filtered diurnal heating/destabilization of a moistening boundary
   layer (upper 60s dewpoints) is ongoing over portions of the central
   FL Panhandle. Given this downstream destabilization and the
   increasing organization of the convective line (including northern
   book-end vortex), strong to severe gusts are possible over portions
   of the central Florida Panhandle in the next two hours.
   Additionally, 40 kt of 0-1 km shear (per KEVX VWP) could support an
   isolated embedded tornado threat. Overall, confidence in the line of
   storms maintaining current intensity is not particularly high,
   though convective trends are being monitored closely.

   ..Weinman/Hart.. 01/27/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...TAE...

   LAT...LON   30258606 30438610 30678586 30798551 30768503 30668449
               30458421 30008416 29678451 29548491 29628540 29898573
               30258606