Mesoscale Discussion 0393
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1124 AM CDT Fri Mar 31 2023

   Areas affected...portions of eastern Iowa...northern Missouri and
   northwestern Illinois

   Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely 

   Valid 311624Z - 311800Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

   SUMMARY...Rapid supercell development is expected over the next 1 to
   2 hours across portions of southwestern IA and northern MO. As
   storms mature the risk for strong and long-track tornadoes, large
   hail and damaging winds is expected to increase quickly through the
   early afternoon. A PDS Tornado Watch is likely need soon.

   DISCUSSION...As of 1600 UTC, visible satellite imagery showed
   deepening cumulus and initial thunderstorms developing over portions
   of far northeastern KS and northern MO. Located beneath the left
   exit region of a powerful 100+ kt mid-level jet, large-scale dynamic
   lift will continue to increase over a rapidly destabilizing warm
   sector. SPC mesoanalysis and area RAP soundings show minimal
   inhibition remains across the western part of the warm sector where
   strong diurnal heating is ongoing. Farther northeast the airmass
   remains somewhat sheltered with lingering cirrus, but dewpoints in
   the upper 50s to low 60s F and steep mid-level lapse rates were
   supporting 1000-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE. Incipient thunderstorms should
   develop within the deepening cumulus field and spread quickly
   northeastward into a strongly sheared (ESRH 300-400 m2/s2)
   environment. The current observational tends match consistently with
   recent HRRR and WOFS guidance which shows numerous, potentially
   tornadic, supercells moving across eastern IA this afternoon. In
   addition, large to very large hail will be possible with storms
   given cold temps aloft and strong vertical shear. Given the
   significant threat for strong/long-track tornadoes, a PDS tornado
   watch will likely be needed within the next hour.

   ..Lyons/Hart.. 03/31/2023

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...MKX...LSX...DVN...ARX...MPX...SGF...
   DMX...EAX...

   LAT...LON   41938973 41538940 39158932 38568978 38199057 37969186
               38129347 38539378 39689409 40079423 40619435 41129446
               41529444 41949453 42279464 43209390 43549359 43689280
               43649163 43449092 42418988 41938973