Mesoscale Discussion 0236
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0709 PM CST Thu Mar 02 2023

   Areas affected...central TX

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 56...

   Valid 030109Z - 030315Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 56
   continues.

   SUMMARY...The severe threat continues for WW 56. A line of severe
   thunderstorms, as well as a few semi-discrete cells on the southern
   periphery, is advancing eastward and will pose a threat for damaging
   winds, large hail, and perhaps a tornado in the next couple of
   hours.

   DISCUSSION...A line of severe thunderstorms has consolidated along
   the cold front in WW 56 and is advancing quickly eastward. 70+ mph
   radial winds are currently sampled around 1 km AGL from KGRK,
   supporting damaging severe wind gusts at the surface. Surface
   objective analysis reveals dewpoints in the upper 60s and lower 70s
   ahead of the convection, yielding MLCAPE around 1500-2000 J/kg
   amidst 70-80 kt bulk shear. Some MLCIN is already present, which is
   expected to increase during the next few hours due to warm advection
   around 850 mb. This may temper the overall severe threat somewhat in
   a few hours. Prior to that point though, low-level shear is expected
   to steadily improve as a low-level jet strengthens. VWPs at
   KGRK/KEWX currently depict 20+ kts of 0-1-km shear, supporting the
   development of locally stronger, quasi-supercellular structures
   within the line and associated hazards. As such, the threat
   continues across WW 56 for damaging wind gusts, large hail, and
   perhaps a tornado or two for the next couple of hours. Convective
   trends will continue to be monitored for possible WW issuance
   downstream.

   ..Flournoy.. 03/03/2023

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...HGX...EWX...

   LAT...LON   29799834 30159807 30409747 30469692 30409645 30099607
               29619633 29179700 29059757 29219838 29799834