Mesoscale Discussion 2036
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0504 PM CST Wed Dec 14 2022

   Areas affected...western half of the FL Panhandle...far southern AL

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 142304Z - 150000Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...Supercells will continue to develop and mature as the
   storms move inland from the Gulf.  A gradual increase in the tornado
   risk is expected this evening, but the risk will be highest later
   this evening.

   DISCUSSION...Radar mosaic shows developing supercells over the shelf
   waters south of the FL Panhandle and into southern AL as of 5pm CST.
   The airmass continues to moisten inland near and south of a maritime
   warm front draped northwest to southeast across the area.  The
   moistening will lead to gradual destabilization inland and will
   offset diurnal cooling to maintain a warm sector with potential
   surface-based inflow parcels.  The hodograph over the FL Panhandle
   is forecast to enlarge over the next 1-3 hours as higher momentum
   flow from the west encroaches on the area.  Although a tornado is
   possible in the near term, the expectation is for greater coverage
   and potential to begin to overspread the area from west to east
   later this evening.  A tornado watch will likely be needed by the
   mid evening.

   ..Smith/Guyer.. 12/14/2022

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...TAE...MOB...

   LAT...LON   31528669 30858549 29728479 29318492 29398540 30018623
               30248719 30898731 31528669