Mesoscale Discussion 2031
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1137 AM CST Wed Dec 14 2022

   Areas affected...Southeast LA...Southern MS...Far Southwest AL

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 587...

   Valid 141737Z - 141930Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 587 continues.

   SUMMARY...Tornado threat is increasing across southeast LA and
   southern MS. This threat is expected persist throughout the
   afternoon with additional watch issuance by 19Z.

   DISCUSSION...Regional radar imagery has shown an increase in shower
   activity over the past hour within the warm sector over southeast LA
   and southern MS. The air mass within this warm sector is
   characterized by temperatures in the mid 70s, dewpoints in the low
   70s, and MLCAPE around 1000-1500 J/kg. Strong wind fields are also
   in place, with numerous surface observations reporting gusts greater
   than 20 kt and regional VAD reporting around 50 kt between 1 and 2
   km. Mesoanalysis estimates effective bulk shear greater than 60 kt.
   These environmental conditions, combined the discrete nature of the
   developing showers, result in a setup very favorable for tornadic
   supercells. Recent KJAN radar imagery shows many of these showers
   are already rotating, and lightning activity noted within a few. 

   Expectation is for the tornado threat to continue within this region
   throughout the afternoon. Tornado Watch 587 is set to expire at 19Z
   and will need to be replaced with another watch across portions of
   the region. Given the environmental conditions, PDS wording may be
   needed in this replacement watch.

   ..Mosier/Hart.. 12/14/2022

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...JAN...LIX...LCH...

   LAT...LON   30319181 31869036 32498921 32378807 31108766 30688892
               30288988 29869096 30319181