Mesoscale Discussion 1514
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0542 PM CDT Mon Jul 18 2022

   Areas affected...northern North Dakota

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

   Valid 182242Z - 190115Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

   SUMMARY...Severe storms will develop out of northeast Montana and
   bring damaging winds and hail across the northern half of North
   Dakota.

   DISCUSSION...A potent shortwave trough will continue rapidly east
   across MT, with surface low deepening over ND after 00Z. Scattered
   strong to severe storms are already ongoing ahead of a cold front
   across northeast MT, and these are expected to organize further as
   they encounter stronger instability to the east. Strong deep-layer
   shear and favorable storm relative inflow with backed surface winds
   near the Canadian border will support a severe MCS and/or supercells
   at times. Both damaging wind and hail appear likely, though a brief
   tornado cannot be ruled out as the low-level jet increases this
   evening.

   ..Jewell/Thompson.. 07/18/2022

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS...GGW...

   LAT...LON   49030407 49020247 49010002 49029803 48639810 48239831
               47729890 47559962 47390110 47210305 47130402 49030407