Mesoscale Discussion 1513
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0538 PM CDT Mon Jul 18 2022

   Areas affected...portions of the Mid atlantic and southern New
   England

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 473...

   Valid 182238Z - 190015Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 473
   continues.

   SUMMARY...Ongoing clusters of strong to severe storms from DelMarVA
   to southeastern NY State should remain capable of isolated damaging
   gusts and perhaps a brief weak tornado through this evening.
   Additional storm development along the synoptic cold front is also
   possible though uncertain.

   DISCUSSION...As of 2220 UTC, regional radar showed several clusters
   of strong to severe storms ongoing from DelMarVA into southern New
   England. Recent observations and SPC mesoanalysis show a warm and
   moist environment with 1000-1500 J/kg of MCLAPE. The favorable
   buoyancy should continue to support strong updrafts with the ongoing
   storms. Area VAD/VWPs also show 40-50 kt of bulk shear which will
   continue to favor storm organization into small bowing clusters and
   miniature supercells. Given the favorable buoyancy and organized
   storm modes, a few damaging wind gusts will remain possible this
   evening. A brief weak tornado will also remain possible with any
   sustained mini supercells, particularly across southern NY Sate/New
   England. Here, locally backed flow near the warm front may enhance
   low-level shear enough to sustain transient low-level mesocyclones
   and a brief tornado risk.

   Farther west along the synoptic cold front, agitated cumulus was
   observed across portions of eastern PA and upstate NY. Some hi-res
   guidance suggests isolated storm development is possible through
   this evening. Veered low-level flow near the front will likely
   support more of a linear mode with a damaging wind threat. It
   remains unclear if residual buoyancy will be strong enough to
   support any severe weather risk this evening. However, if additional
   storms form, an isolated damaging wind risk may develop.

   ..Lyons.. 07/18/2022

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...BOX...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...CTP...LWX...

   LAT...LON   39387642 39927665 40267648 40677600 41307533 41727440
               42467382 42777362 42957322 42927297 42777276 42427262
               41557263 41157283 40707333 40527391 39367494 39287495
               39067522 38757552 38787595 39387642