Mesoscale Discussion 0664
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0456 PM CDT Thu May 05 2022

   Areas affected...portions of far southeast Arkansas into northern
   Mississippi into middle Tennessee...southern Kentucky...and far
   northwest Alabama

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 182...183...

   Valid 052156Z - 052330Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 182, 183
   continues.

   SUMMARY...The severe threat continues across Severe Thunderstorm
   Watches 0182-0183. Large hail and damaging gusts are the primary
   threats with the stronger, more sustained storms. The severe threat
   should persist through sundown, with a gradual weakening trend
   expected after dark.

   DISCUSSION...Multicellular and transient supercellular storms have
   been progressing across southern KY and Middle TN over the past few
   hours while a more sustained supercell structure persists across
   northern MS. MRMS mosaic radar imagery suggests marginally severe
   hail has occasionally occurred with the KY/TN storms as they pulse
   in intensity, with a more defined hail streak ongoing with the MS
   storm. Across the TN valley, storms are preceded by up to 65F
   surface dewpoints beneath 7-8 C/km low-level lapse rates,
   contributing up to 1500 J/kg MLCAPE. 21Z mesoanalysis suggests 30-45
   kts of effective bulk shear is in place across the TN Valley, driven
   by modest speed and directional shear in the 0-3 km layer (as shown
   by planar hodograph analysis). 

   Given the favorable kinematic and thermodynamic environment in
   place, occasional bouts of severe hail and damaging gusts should
   continue with ongoing storms, particularly with the more dominant
   storms that can avoid harmful cell mergers. This is especially the
   case for the northern MS storm, which remains somewhat discrete.
   Damaging gusts may also remain possible with the more linear
   convection along the MS river which comprises the northern end of an
   organized MCS. The severe threat should persist through sunset.
   Thereafter, a gradual weakening trend is likely as the boundary
   layer stabilizes, as also suggested by the last several runs of the
   HRRR.

   ..Squitieri.. 05/05/2022

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...BMX...HUN...PAH...MEG...JAN...LZK...

   LAT...LON   33329232 35069002 36968722 37348609 37178553 36808534
               36368541 35568579 34788681 34238798 33358967 33329232