Mesoscale Discussion 0628
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0727 PM CDT Mon May 02 2022

   Areas affected...East-central Oklahoma into west-central Arkansas

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 172...

   Valid 030027Z - 030200Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 172 continues.

   SUMMARY...The isolated supercell east of Fort Smith, AR, continues
   to weaken as it moves north of the warm front. An increase in the
   low-level jet will try to push the warm front northward this
   evening. Additional storms may form along the warm front posing a
   tornado and isolated large hail threat.

   DISCUSSION...An isolated supercell continues east of Fort Smith, AR.
   This storm has weakened as it has slowly moved north of the warm
   front. With the low-level jet increasing this evening, some
   potential for the warm front to retreat northward exists. However,
   it seems unlikely to move fast enough for the current storm to
   restrengthen.

   KSRX has show an increase in showers in east-central Oklahoma. This
   is likely evidence of the increasing low-level jet into the
   boundary. Earlier guidance had suggested that additional storms
   could form early this evening. Should this occur, continued
   southeasterly winds at the surface and the increase in 850 flow
   would continue to support tornado potential. Mid-level lapse rates
   observed at LZK this evening would also support large hail with
   discrete storms.

   Later this evening ongoing storms in Oklahoma may approach western
   portions of WW 172. Damaging winds would be the most likely threat
   with this activity as storm mode will be much more linear.

   ..Wendt.. 05/03/2022

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...

   LAT...LON   35569504 35689382 35229228 34759224 34029285 33959312
               34229405 34629492 34909532 35569504