Mesoscale Discussion 0394
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0216 PM CDT Mon Apr 04 2022

   Areas affected...Portions of north-central/northwest TX and far
   southern OK

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

   Valid 041916Z - 042145Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

   SUMMARY...The threat for large to very large hail, damaging winds,
   and perhaps a tornado or two will increase this afternoon and
   evening. Watch issuance is likely.

   DISCUSSION...19Z surface observations show a nearly stationary front
   across parts of northwest TX into far south-central OK. The warm
   sector along and south/east of this boundary continues to
   destabilize this afternoon, with surface temperatures reaching into
   the 70s and low 80s, and dewpoints ranging from the mid 50s to low
   60s. Steep mid-level lapse rates around 7-8 C/km have overspread
   this region, and they are contributing to upwards of 1000 J/kg of
   MLCAPE as of 19Z. Additional diurnal heating and gradually cooling
   mid-level temperatures as an upper trough ejects over the southern
   Plains should allow MLCAPE up to 1500-2000 J/kg to develop across
   parts of northwest/north-central TX over the next few hours.

   Recent visible satellite imagery shows gradually deepening
   thunderstorms along and just behind the front in northwest TX, along
   with mid-level convection farther east over the open warm sector. As
   substantial convective inhibition continues to erode (see 18Z FWD
   sounding), and modest large-scale ascent overspreads the warm sector
   this afternoon, additional thunderstorms are expected to form along
   the front. Deep-layer shear of 35-50 kt will likely support
   supercells with this initial activity. Isolated large hail should be
   the main threat with this convection through the early evening,
   although some damaging winds could occur as well. Given the presence
   of steep mid-level lapse rates, some very large (2+ inches) hail
   appears possible.

   With time this evening, thunderstorms will likely grow upscale into
   a bowing cluster across north-central TX and far south-central OK as
   weak low-level southerly flow gradually increases. Damaging winds
   will become increasingly probable as this mode transition occurs.
   The tornado threat through the rest of the afternoon should remain
   fairly marginal given modest low-level shear (see recent VWPs from
   KDYX/KFWS). Still, a threat for a tornado or two may gradually
   increase this evening, mainly after 01Z, as low-level shear slowly
   strengthens. Regardless, the overall severe threat along/south of
   the front this afternoon will likely warrant watch issuance in the
   next couple of hours.

   ..Gleason/Mosier.. 04/04/2022

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...

   LAT...LON   31589970 32159991 33029988 33739956 34209908 34409842
               34429774 34349692 33839687 33339718 32139816 31499876
               31359924 31589970