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Mesoscale Discussion 1655 |
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Mesoscale Discussion 1655
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0725 PM CDT Mon Aug 30 2021
Areas affected...portions of southern South Dakota and northern
Nebraska
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 477...
Valid 310025Z - 310300Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 477
continues.
SUMMARY...Large hail and strong wind gusts will remain possible
across WW 477 the next few hours. A hail and damaging-wind threat
may develop downstream across parts of southern South Dakota and
northern Nebraska this evening and this area is being monitored for
possible watch issuance.
DISCUSSION...Isolated severe thunderstorms continue this evening
across western South Dakota within Severe Thunderstorm Watch 477.
Very large hail continues to be the main hazard with this activity
and should persist for another couple of hours.
Downstream evolution of the severe threat continues to be somewhat
uncertain across parts of south-central/southeast SD and
north-central/northeast NE. An agitated CU field over Cherry County
NE has shown increasing vertical development over the past hour or
so, with several TCU noted in visible satellite imagery. HRRR
guidance has struggled to accurately depict ongoing convection
across the region in a weak forcing regime. But most guidance has
been consistent in developing east/southeastward-advancing
thunderstorm clusters across southern SD into northern NE this
evening. The 00z RAOB from LBF indicates inhibition has weakened
considerably since the 18z LBF RAOB. The overall environment
downstream from WW 477 remains favorable for severe storms given
strong vertical shear and moderate instability. A subtle shortwave
impulse shifting eastward from WY may be sufficient amid a
developing southerly low level jet across the region to support
additional thunderstorm development this evening. Coverage and
timing remains uncertain, but a downstream watch may be needed in
the next few hours downstream from WW 477.
..Leitman/Edwards.. 08/31/2021
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...ABR...LBF...UNR...
LAT...LON 43580261 44210262 44750226 44980173 44840051 44529929
43999833 43659782 43259725 42919697 42439694 42169716
42019774 41979810 41979880 42020011 42190086 42630164
43210232 43580261
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