Mesoscale Discussion 0858
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0122 AM CDT Sun Jun 06 2021

   Areas affected...Much of central into northeastern North Dakota

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 238...

   Valid 060622Z - 060815Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 238
   continues.

   SUMMARY...Strong to occasionally severe wind gusts likely will
   continue to accompany thunderstorm activity spreading across much of
   central through northeastern North Dakota by 2-4 AM CDT.  A new
   severe thunderstorm watch probably will be issued for parts of
   northeastern North Dakota shortly.

   DISCUSSION...Large-scale forcing for ascent, aided by lower/mid
   tropospheric warming advection, ahead of mid-level troughing
   progressing northeastward across the northern Rockies, is
   maintaining an ongoing cluster of thunderstorms.  Convection appears
   mostly rooted above its associated conglomerate outflow, which has
   been surging east-northeastward around 40 kts.  

   Despite the elevated nature of the convection, a deep, remnant
   sub-cloud mixed layer, above the shallow outflow, is still allowing
   for substantive evaporative cooling/melting to contribute to strong
   downdrafts beneath stronger storms, as well as downward mixing of
   50+ kt rear inflow evident in Minot radar data.  This seems likely
   to continue at least another several hours, with activity likely
   spreading across and northeast of the Devils Lake area through
   07-09Z.

   ..Kerr.. 06/06/2021

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...FGF...ABR...BIS...UNR...

   LAT...LON   49089729 48019774 46519940 45720196 46080235 47780065
               49010024 49799854 49089729