Mesoscale Discussion 0445
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0138 AM CDT Wed Apr 28 2021

   Areas affected...parts of western Texas

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 115...

   Valid 280638Z - 280845Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 115
   continues.

   SUMMARY...Severe storms over southwest Texas are likely to persist,
   and may increase in intensity in a few hours over parts of northwest
   Texas. Damaging winds, large hail, and eventually a tornado risk are
   possible.

   DISCUSSION...Surface analysis shows an outflow boundary (nearly
   stationary) from west of GLE to near ABI, with fresh outflow moving
   across Sterling/Reagan/Upton Counties. Area VWPs indicate a strong
   low-level jet which will aid air-mass recovery over northwest TX
   later tonight. 

   A zone of greater surface theta-e currently extends from near ABI
   southwestward through SJT and DRT, with 68-70 F dewpoints. With
   time, ongoing cells west of ABI may incorporate the more unstable
   air mass, especially if the pre-existing outflow boundary begins to
   lift north. The strong deep-layer shear will continue to favor
   fast-moving cells or bows capable of damaging wind and hail. Greater
   effective SRH on the warm side of the outflow boundary could support
   a tornado risk, with 300+ m2/s2 present. Given currently observed
   storm motions, cells may move into the better air even if the
   boundary remains stationary.

   ..Jewell.. 04/28/2021

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...FWD...SJT...MAF...

   LAT...LON   31460235 32050149 32450100 32770002 33109877 32899830
               32359833 31829889 31640004 31380128 31270192 31280228
               31460235