Mesoscale Discussion 0385
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0527 PM CDT Wed Apr 14 2021

   Areas affected...Portions of the Louisiana and Texas Coastline

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 95...

   Valid 142227Z - 150030Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 95
   continues.

   SUMMARY...A limited threat for severe storms will remain in place
   for a couple more hours. Large hail would be the primary threat for
   any storms that manage to develop.

   DISCUSSION...A surface cold front is currently meandering along the
   east-TX coastline, with temperatures in the 80s F and dewpoints
   exceeding 70 F ahead of the front. Steep (8+ C/km) mid-level lapse
   rates overspreading the warm, moist low-level airmass have promoted
   3000-4000 J/kg MLCAPE (per latest Mesoanalysis and RAP forecast
   soundings). Despite the favorable thermodynamic environment in
   place, along with 35+ kts of effective bulk shear, very limited
   deep-layer ascent has precluded a more robust severe threat thus
   far. Given that afternoon peak heating is underway, it appears that
   low-level lift due to diurnal mixing is insufficient for promoting
   organized storms/a severe threat. Some upper support is evident via
   the eastward propagation of a small mid-level impulse across
   northwest TX, however, it is unclear if the upper support will
   influence an uptick in convective development across southeast
   Texas.

   Should storms manage to develop and mature in close proximity to the
   front, especially towards the BEA/VCT vicinity, large hail would
   become a concern given the steep lapse rates in place. Conditions
   will continue to be monitored for more rigorous convective
   development.

   ..Squitieri.. 04/14/2021

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...LCH...HGX...CRP...EWX...

   LAT...LON   27839716 28249789 28669810 29029778 29489684 30029529
               30209403 30029377 29579389 28989501 28549588 27839716