Mesoscale Discussion 0244
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0737 PM CDT Wed Mar 24 2021

   Areas affected...northeast Texas into the ArkLaTex and far
   southeastern Oklahoma

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 48...

   Valid 250037Z - 250130Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 48
   continues.

   SUMMARY...The greatest severe threat in the near term is across the
   eastern half of WW 48 and areas downstream.

   DISCUSSION...An ongoing cluster of thunderstorms (a few with
   marginally strong supercellular structures) continues to migrate
   northeastward across the eastern half of WW 48.  Hail as large as
   1.75 inches in diameter was reported with one dominant cell over Van
   Zandt County earlier.  Most of the severe threat exists with cells
   that can acquire rotation, with pressure perturbations processes
   amid weak to moderate instability fostering hail production.  These
   cells are also lifting northeastward in tandem with a warm front
   subjectively analyzed near the I-30 corridor in northeast Texas. 
   Cells that interact favorably with this boundary will continue to
   pose a hail/wind and brief tornado risk.  Furthermore, increasing
   low-level flow may aid in maintenance of ongoing cells despite a
   general tendency toward more elevated convection over time.  This
   could maintain a hail risk just beyond the confines of WW 48 over
   time.

   Western portions of WW 48 (generally west of I-35) are currently
   experiencing a lull in the severe weather risk.   Despite
   appreciable deep shear, relatively meager mid-level lapse rates seem
   to be the primary limiting factor for a more robust threat.  This
   may change over the next couple of hours as ascent now approaching
   the Texas Big Country/southwest Texas vicinity approaches the region
   later tonight.

   ..Cook/Grams.. 03/25/2021

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...

   LAT...LON   33849743 34029625 34199505 34129410 33619369 32919371
               32529394 32469460 32469563 32639712 32649793 33139799
               33849743